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SHOW ME THE TURKEY...

What you are looking at here is a hi-res satellite image of the storm that has brought rain, sleet, and snow to much of the central Midwest the past 36 hours. It's weakening snow but was pretty vigorous at its peak.

The snow has long since ended and here are the amounts reported through Tuesday evening from the Iowa Mesonet. With a bit more cold air around this would have been a big snow producer with QPF over an inch!

Here's a tighter view of my local area.

Doppler precipitation estimates have exceeded 1.5 inches in the southeast half of my region through Tuesday evening. Maybe even 2 inches in the southeast tip of Iowa!

The rain is not done either as one last wave of significant energy pushes through Wednesday. The primary focus for the heavier totals will again be over the SE 1/2 to 2/3rds of my region where perhaps as much as another inch of rain is possible. Here's what the EURO and GFS show for rainfall amounts through Wednesday. The lions share of this falls in the morning hours.


The EURO

The GFS Did I mention what a shame it is we weren't a bit colder. What a snowstorm this would have been. Spilled mild as they say.

After this chilly damp mess departs the rest of the holiday weekend promises to be dry and seasonal through Saturday. After that a strong push of cold air arrives for Sunday and while the frontal passage is dry the cold air means business. The EURO has highs that look like this into next week. You can see we run roughly 45 to 50 through Saturday. The model shows 45 Sunday but will be early as winds increase in the afternoon and temperatures fall below freezing Sunday evening. Monday looks very fresh as November goes out on a cold note with a high sub-32.

This is where the pattern shows signs of turning colder and active, at least for a week or two into December. Right out of the gate a major storm is expected to spin up but the early take is that unless it digs further west the worst of its snow should be just east of my area. What I can say is that there is good model agreement that a significant storm with the potential for heavy snow will impact the area near and east of Chicago Monday and Tuesday of next week. Both models depict the development of the strong cyclone at noon Monday.


The EURO

The GFS

Both have a snowy scenario for our friends to the east. These numbers are typically inflated this early in the game so I'm sure they will come down some but the trend is there for a very healthy snowstorm. Here's the "preliminary" snowfall forecasts.


The EURO

The GFS

I guess the big take away at this point is that a more wintry weather pattern is going to settle by the start of next week. At least for now, the biggest impacts will be the colder temperatures with the stormy side of the pattern just off to the east. Plenty of time to monitor trends.


As for the short term forecast, another cruddy day is on tap today but nice improvement is expected Turkey day. Gobble it up and show me the turkey Roll weather....TS


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