SNOW, COLD, & PAIN...

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MORE WHERE THAT CAME FROM:

A vicious shot of Arctic air blasted the region Sunday night and Monday. A howling NW wind that reached 52mph in Cedar Rapids drove wind chills into the range of 20-25 below. Some brief but heavy snow showers also reduced visibility at times. Snow that fell on and off Thursday through the weekend deposited amounts of 1 to 3 inches north of I-80, with lighter amounts south. Some good old-fashioned winter weather for a change. From the looks of it, there is more where that came from.

The next couple of days the area will be on the southern edge of the Arctic boundary, in fact it even nudges its way back north for some minor warming, especially in my southern counties. The GFS shows how the cold is laid out from NW to SE.

The division creates a clear baroclinic boundary that will set the stage for two quick hitting clippers the next 48–60 hours. Due to their fast movement and limited moisture, they won't be big snow producers. However, they will take advantage of the cold air in place to produce fluffy, high ratio snows. The best lift is going to be found in my northern counties where the more substantial snows of 1–3 inches are expected, (perhaps 4 inches+ near HWY 20). Much lighter amounts (less than 1") are expected south of I-80.

Clipper number one enters the picture Tuesday evening with a band of warm air advection sweeping primarily north of I-80 and the track of the system. About 6–8 hours of light to moderate snow is expected there. The hi-res CAMS such as the 3k NAM and HRRR have come in a bit higher on QPF, and a winter weather advisory seems warranted north of HWY 30. Winds will not be a factor, with temperatures only in the teens north to the mid to upper 20s south. More on snow totals below.

Wednesday looks quiet but another system hot on the heels of the first, sweeps through Wednesday night. Temperatures should make it into the mid 20s north to the low 30s south late Wednesday or Wednesday evening, with a track slightly further north. Again, it's the north that sees the best chance of seeing some light accumulations, especially my counties from HWY 30 north.

Between the two rounds of snow, models are suggesting this for accumulations through Thursday. Here's the raw model output, not forecasts, just guidance from which forecasts are derived from. Note the larger totals on the higher resolution 3K NAM, HRRR, and Canadian RDPS 10k. They represent a trend that needs to be watched but is still not a certainty. We will know much more Tuesday afternoon when mesocale details are resolved. Most of the accumulations shown through Thursday occur Tuesday night.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3K NAM

The HRRR

The RDPS 10K Canadian

The NBMv5 using lower snow ratios

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THE GATEKEEPER...

Beyond and snow, the second clipper is the gatekeeper as far as cold is concerned. Once it departs, it opens the door for another mean blast of Arctic air Thursday night and Friday. At 500mb you can see the cold sweeping in behind a Polar Vortex situated in SC Canada.

The EURO depicts an 850 temperature of -28 C as far south as Dubuque and -32 in Decorah in NE Iowa. That is true polar air and will bring some bitterly cold readings into the Midwest Friday, Saturday, as well as Sunday morning. Take a look at these lows indicated on the operational EURO the weekend.

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Every bit as impressive are the daytime temperatures Friday. The EURO has a reading at noon of 17 below zero in Dubuque and Waterloo, 10 below in the Quad Cities! That's so cold, I double and triple checked to see if indeed I was reading the data right. What a feat that would be should it verify. Even if it was 10 below, that is high-end cold for a midday reading, 17 below is off the charts. This was a concern I pointed out in my posts late last week with that Polar vortex just north of the Minnesota border.

Of course, an air mass of this caliber rarely comes without wind and rest assured a 1052mb high will do the trick as it creates the pressure gradient necessary to drive wind chills to dangerous levels.

The EURO shows widespread wind chills of 34 to 44 below Friday morning. No doubt warnings for the cold will be in place this weekend if trends hold.

For perspective on the chill, consider temperatures will be 36 to 40 degrees below normal at the coldest time of the year. Ugh, no thanks!

There does appear to be some moderation in temperatures early next week as the vortex in Canada works its way east. However, it is likely to be confined to a couple of days before another blast of cold air arrives for the middle of next week. As you can see the, the Climate Prediction Center has high confidence on the depth and duration of the cold in its 6-10 day outlook.

Longer range, the AO (Arctic Oscillation) and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) both remain significantly negative, giving credence to the idea of temperatures remaining below normal into Early February.

The AO

The NAO

To that point, the ensembles of the EURO show this for the average 30-day temperature departures through February 20th. Looks like a lot of northwest flow in that pattern. While it may be cold, it would be a clipper dominated pattern, meaning below normal precipitation with only light to perhaps moderate snowfall.

As was advertised last week, there is a lot of weather on the table through the weekend. There will be bitter cold, some snow (especially north of I-80), and certainly some pain. Buckle up, winter is back and in a mood. Roll weather...TS