SNOWY PATTERN INCLUDES MAJOR WINTER STORM...
Three winter weather systems will impact the region tonight into Wednesday. The first produces light snow, especially north of I-80 overnight where 1-2" totals are possible. Most of the 2" amounts (perhaps a couple 3" totals) will occur near and north of HWY 30, especially closer to HWY 20. Further south minor snow amounts are expected with some concern for freezing drizzle, which could even get into my central counties after the snow tapers off. This system won't be around long with the window for snow only 4-6 hours with it generally starting late evening and ending well before morning. The official NWS forecast shows this for snowfall overnight.
The second system has the earmarks of a big snow producer and I have the numbers to prove it. It holds of until later Monday and lasts into Tuesday morning and it has prompted a winter storm watch for roughly the southern half of my area. I don't like to quibble but I personally think the watch should extend further east and extend north all the way up to HWY 20 including places like Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, Freeport, Rock Falls. Princeton, Galesburg, etc. That's up to the NWS but since this is my sight I'll say it anyway and hope I'm right. Here's where the watch is located.
My rational for extending it further north and east is simply what the guidance is showing for totals. These are the major operational models using the Kuchera method which accounts for ratios greater than the traditional 10:1 average where appropriate. These do include amounts from tonight's system but those are minimal anyway in the 1-2 category at most.
The EURO
The GFS
The Canadian GEM
Since we are still 48 hours away things are still not set in stone but my confidence has really grown today thanks to the excellent consistency in model solutions. As usual, the "DUDE" better known as the EURO led the way. Barring something really drastic much of the area from HWY 20 south past Burlington has a high chance of seeing amounts of 6 inches plus. In the heaviest band which looks to be about 30 miles either side of I-80, some10-12" totals are possible where banding takes place. I would not be surprised to see reports of thundersnow!
Last but not least, another system Wednesday has the potential of producing another 1-3 inches of snow over most of my area. Why am I in Maine?!?! You snow freaks, make sure you appreciate this for me. I'm there in spirit! Roll weather, roll white gold...TS
A SECOND PRINTING OF MY NEW BOOK IS ON THE WAY...
250 NEW COPIES OF DERECHO 911, IOWA'S INLAND HURRICANE ARE AVAILABLE. Around Christmas we sold the last of the 1500 copies of our book on this historic thunderstorm, the most damaging in U.S. history. Due to continued demand we have ordered a limited number of 250 for those of you interested in having the most authoritative account of this extreme event. You can get yours at derechobook.com
