SOAKING IT UP...
When its good, it's very good! I'm talking about our weather! A first rate day of sunshine and highs in the 70s Thursday has us all craving for more and we can deliver another stellar performance Friday before some issues begin to develop over the weekend. Here's what Thursday's beautiful day looked like from about 20,000 miles in space. Nothing but a few fair weather cumulus clouds up north to break the vast expanse of turquoise skies.
Late day temperatures were running 3-4 degrees below normal...pleasantly cool.
Friday looks to be Thursday's twin with more sunshine and similar temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The EURO indicates highs that look like this.
THE WEEKEND AHEAD:
The high pressure that's provided three days of excellent weather departs Friday night allowing southerly flow to return to the lower levels. That facilitates moisture and slightly warmer temperatures Saturday. Additionally, the flow aloft flattens allowing a regular series of short wave energy to travel along a weak boundary that wobbles north as a warm front Saturday before returning south as a cold front Sunday.
As the first wave of energy arrives late Saturday warm air advection will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms that work from north to south Saturday night and early Sunday. The best lift/forcing remains near and north of HWY 20 which is where the best chances for any heavier rains would be found. Elsewhere, amounts should be lighter generally under a quarter inch. While some rain chances remain on Sunday, lift weakens before strengthening again on Monday. It would be fair to say the pattern will be unsettled late Saturday through Monday before calming down again some after that. Here's what the EURO and GFS indicate for total precipitation Saturday night through Monday night.
The EURO
The GFS
The Weather Prediction Center shows a split in the energy keeping the more significant totals north and south of my area. Models have been hinting at that for several days. Today they are a bit more generous in my central counties. I'll need to fine tune some things in the next 24 hours as energy becomes better sampled on the grids.
As Tswails.com has been advertising for quite some time, the next 10 days have a cool look to them with daily departures on the GFS significantly below normal.
Something that has changed on the GFS is its move away from warmer readings beyond June 14th. Today the deterministic 16 day meteogram of the GFS does not have a single day in the 80s through June 18th. I think that's suspect and I will be very surprised if we could accomplish such a feat. No matter what, the lack of air conditioning saves money as cooling degree days will be well below average.
NOAA does think warmth will eventually come at some point beyond mid-June as its seasonal outlook for summer indicates a good chance of above normal temperatures in the June through August period. Some things will have to change if that outlook is going to come to fruition but at the very least I think average temperatures are a good bet. I also like the idea of this summers heat being concentrated from west Texas to the central Rockies. If that happens we may eventually get into a ring of fire pattern as the heat lurks to the west and storms fire on its eastern edge which resides close by. These thunderstorm clusters are often nocturnal in nature with wind and heavy rain potential. Something to keep an eye on.
With that, I urge you to soak up another day of spectacular June conditions. Some changes are on the way this weekend. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS
