STEVE'S WILD WORLD OF WEATHER...
When I'm wondering about weather folklore and historical events this is the man I go to. With more than 50 years of statistical and observational research, he's the dude! When it comes to lunar cycles, woolly bear caterpillars, insects, bugs, and animals, he tracks them, records them, and establishes ties to weather patterns. He's a knowledgeable and interesting man. His name is Steve Gottschalk by way of Lowden, Iowa. I'm grateful to him for lending his unique perspective to the site. Steve's "wild" world of weather can be found regularly right here on TSwails.com. Take it away Steve!
A Rare August Snow
I found this item in my notes that I had copied from some material on Iowa's weather that the late weather historian and founder of Weatherwise magazine, David Ludlum had lent to me back in 1989. I was thinking about doing a book on Iowa's weather history at that time. It was from the New York Times dated August 5, 1924. Snow fell briefly at Cedar Rapids at 12:05 a.m. on the 4th. The snow came at the end of a violent rainstorm.
The Chances Of A Cold December?
The last time we had a cold December was 8 years ago, back in 2013, so I think we are due for one? By a cold December, I am talking 2.5 degrees or colder than normal.
Out of the 15 coldest Decembers since 1960, 12 of them occurred during a La Nina. Since 2000 we have had 5 cold Decembers and they all came during a La Nina event.
I tried to find a similarity in these 15 Decembers. To do it, I matching up the months of April - July with similar temperatures and came up with 2 years that had close matches. The year of 1963 had an average temperature of 12.8 degrees in December and was during a La Nina and the other year was 2005 that had an average temperature of 18.4 degrees in December and was during an El Nino. In 1963 we had a near normal August and a warm September and October. In 2005 we had a normal August and a warm September and October. We will have to see if this year will be the same.
Forecasting With Different Kinds Of Bubbles
Here are a couple of weather folklore sayings that you may want to try? I had a great uncle who told me about this back in the late 1960's, but I never really tested them.
If there's bubbles in the puddles, it will rain all night.
If you see bubbles on top of a puddle or pond, it's going to rain the next day.
Our Chances Of A Cold January?
I had read that we may be in for a very cold January this coming winter. I was thinking about what kind of conditions were needed to have a bitter January. I found 13 Januaries in my records where the average temperatures ranged from 13.5 degrees down to 1.7 degrees.
Using the 4 main tele-connections: the ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific North American oscillation to do my research. I found that in order to have a cold January, at least 2 of these indexes has to be negative. Two of the top 3 coldest Januaries had 3 indexes that were negative. Eleven of the 13 Januaries had the Arctic Oscillation in the negative phase so it is a strong indicator.
If you look at similar temperature trends, it looks like a colder January likes to follow a warmer April, a cooler May, a near normal June and a cooler July. The closest match I could find with this year up to this point is 1982. The average temperature in January of 1982 was a frosty 4.9 degrees. I will continue to monitor this as the season progresses.
August's First 50 Degree Minimum And Our First Freezing Temperature
I was told that there may be a connection between August's first 50 minimum and the occurrence of our first freezing temperature. I used the database from 2000-2020 in my records to check it out. I found that when the first 50 degree reading occurs after August 10th there is a 77% probability that the first 32 degree temperature won't occur until October 8th or later.
What The Almanacs Were Predicting Around This Time Many Years Ago
The Farmer's Almanac - continued warm.
Housekeeper's Almanac - clouds and rain, then clearing
OK then, that's all for this edition. On the wild side of weather I'm Steve Gottschalk.
