STEVE'S "WILD" WORLD OF WEATHER...

When I'm wondering about weather folklore and historical events this is the man I go to. With more than 50 years of statistical and observational research, he's the dude! When it comes to lunar cycles, woolly bear caterpillars, insects, bugs, and animals, he tracks them, records them, and establishes ties to weather patterns. Only one person takes climatology to a level like this. He's even earned a lifetime achievement award from the National Weather Service for his devotion to data and science. His name is Steve Gottschalk by way of Lowden, Iowa. He's a knowledgeable and interesting man. I'm grateful to him for lending his unique perspective to the site. Steve's "wild" world of weather can be found regularly right here on TSwails.com. Take it away Steve!

May's Temperature Trends

The temperatures for the month of May were fairly consistent from 1873-1929 with the average around 59.7 degrees. The 1930's saw a substantial warm up with an average of 61.8 degrees. The 1940's cooled off with the average at 59.5. There was a gradual warm up again from 1950-1989 with an average of 61.0. The 1990's saw a dip with an average of 59.7. A slight warming again from 2000-2019 with an average of 60.3 degrees. The first 3 years of the 2020's, the average was back down to 59.3. The warmest decade was the 1930's with 61.8 degrees followed by the 1980's 61.5 average. The coolest decade was the 1890's with 59.1 followed by the 1940's with 59.5.

Top Ten Warmest Mays Top Ten Coldest Mays

1. - 1934 - 69.5. 1. - 1907 - 53.4.

2. - 1977 - 67.8. 2. - 1888 - 53.7.

3. - 2018 - 67.0. 3. - 1892 - 53.9.

4. - 1881 - 66.6. 4. - 1924 - 54.0.

5. - 1939 - 66.3. 5. - 1882 - 54.2.

6. - 1880 - 66.2. 6. - 1883 - 54.5.

7. - 1936 - 66.1. 7. - 1997 - 54.6.

8. - 1941,1988 - 65.9. 8. - 1935 - 54.8.

9. - 1964 - 65.8. 9. - 1917, 1945 - 55.0.

10. - 1896 - 65.4. 10. - 1910 - 55.3.

Spring Tornadoes

This past March saw our greatest number of tornadoes since records have been kept going back to 1950. The average number of tornadoes during March from 1950-2015 was 2.1, but since 2016 the average has jumped to 9.0 including this past year. The top 5 Marches are as follows:

2023 - 26.

2017 - 18.

1990 - 17.

2002 - 15

1991 - 13.

For the month of April the average number of tornadoes from 1950-2015 was 6.1, but since 2016 the average has fallen to 3.1. The top 5 years for April tornadoes are as follows:

2001 - 40.

2006 - 23.

2011 - 20.

1999 - 18.

1967 - 17.

For the month of May the average number of tornadoes from 1950-2015 was 11.3, but since 2016 the number has fallen to 9.6. The top 5 years for May tornadoes are as follows:

2004 - 57.

1998 - 34.

2019 - 26.

1988, 2008 - 25.

2000 - 24.

I looked at the previous 5 Marches with the greatest number of tornadoes and found that the average number of tornadoes in the month of May would be 6. The range is from 1 to 10 storms.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation And May Tornadoes

I was wondering if there was a connection with the Mays with the greatest number of tornadoes and the ENSO Index. Of the top 14 Mays I found that 5 of them occurred during a neutral phase, 5 of them occurred during a La Nina and 4 during an El Nino. We are in a neutral phase presently which is expected to go into an El Nino later on.

May Tornado Occurrences And Lunar Phases

For a number of years I have been researching to see if tornadoes prefer certain phases of the moon to others. Here is what I found.

Full Moon - 37% of the time.

First Quarter - 32% of the time.

New Moon - 18% of the time.

Last Quarter - 13% of the time.

From My Old Weather Journal

May 5th, 1843 - The ground is still mostly frozen so that one could hardly plow. Hundreds of cattle died from the cold and starvation this past winter.

May of 1882

4th - The cold weather continues and the frosts of late did some damage to the fruit trees.

18th - Iowa has had 27 tornadoes during the past 27 years.

22nd - Frost this morning, ice was thick as a pane of glass.

23rd - Over 1.0" of snow on the ground at daylight and it didn't all disappear until after noon. The temperature fell from 50 to 34 degrees in 2 hours last evening.

Dry Aprils, Dry Mays?

My weather station only recorded 1.42" of precipitation during the month of April, the normal is 3.83". It was my 2nd driest April on record. Only 2018 with 1.28" was drier. For my 64 years of record, the 3 driest have occurred since 2004. Looking at the 6 driest years, I found that 5 of those 6 were followed by a dry May. We shall see what happens this year?

The Worlds Greatest Snowstorm?

In my quest for reading about the Earth's most extreme weather, I found this item on a snowstorm in Iran that occurred from February 3-9, 1972. The storm produced 10 feet of snow over most of rural Iran. The southern sections of the country received upwards of 26 feet which buried and killed at least 4,000 people.

A Deadly Tornado Outbreak

On May 3, 1895 a series of tornadoes along with straight line winds swept over portions of N.W. Iowa.

The first tornado occurred at 2:30 p.m., an F5, 1000 yards wide that traveled for 13 miles. It moved NE from 3 miles N of Ireton to 2 miles SW of Hull hitting 4 schools. Two of the schools, several miles apart were leveled killing the teachers and some students. The dead teacher at the 1st school (Haggie School) was the brother of the teacher killed at the 2nd school (Coombs School). The adjoining farms were entirely leveled with several deaths. The schoolchildren were carried up to 1/2 mile, many sustained lifelong injuries. A considerable number of livestock was killed. Hail did much damage in the vicinity of Rock Valley. Western sections of Sioux County had flooding rains, sweeping away bridges, overflowing bottoms, etc. The death toll from the storm was 15 along with another 35 injured.

The second tornado occurred at 3:50 p.m., an F2, 100 yards wide traveled for 5 miles. It moved NE from 4 miles NE of Hull destroying buildings on 5 farms. A school was torn apart injuring 1 student.

The third tornado occurred at 4 p.m. an F3, 200 yards wide and traveled for 5 miles. It moved from 3 miles W of Ashton to 2 miles S of Sibley. Two more schools were destroyed, the 5th and 6th by this tornado family. A man was killed and a son was injured as their home was destroyed. Another home was swept away as a father and 10 children were huddled in the cellar. The storm overturned freight cars and buildings.

The fourth tornado occurred at 8:30 p.m., an F3, 100 yards wide traveled for 7 miles. It moved NNW across the W edge of St. Charles. Buildings were damaged on 10 area farms. One home was completely destroyed with bricks from the chimney being scattered for a 1/4 mile. A total of 20 buildings were torn apart. There were 5 injuries.

Well, that's it for this edition. On the "wild" side of weather...I'm Steve Gottschalk.