STORMS MAKE UP FOR LOST TIME...
Going into Wednesday severe weather in the central Midwest had been minimal with a total of just 97 tornado and thunderstorm warnings issued by the NWS office in Des Moines. Only 4 tornadoes had been reported statewide. That's far below the all-time high of 508 at this point in the season back in 2008.
Be early evening the numbers increased substantially as severe weather raked many parts of Iowa, especially the central and EC portions where unofficially at least 42 tornadoes were reported along with hail as large as golf balls and winds that reached 75 mph. July typically averages just 6 tornadoes in Iowa and if I'm not mistaken the record for a single day in the month is 21 on the 19th of 2018. While surveys need to be done to eliminate duplicate reports, It looks as though July 14th could set a new standard for July tornadoes in Iowa. In fact, it may end up being one of the larger tornado outbreaks in state history! Fortunately, most of the twisters appear to have been lower end in terms of intensity (EF2 or less) or where they were stronger, they avoided populated areas. Here's the reports so far from SPC.
It's no wonder so many were reported with an environment that included a violent tornado parameter index that reached 9 in central and NE Iowa at times during the late afternoon and evening.
The NWS in Des Moines received these pictures of twisters out in central Iowa. This one was captured by Mike Delange near Lake City Iowa.
Here's another taken by Billy Faletti near Jewell, Iowa a bit later in the afternoon.
This is a spectacular Satellite of the supercell anvils which had grown upscale and produced the "atomic bomb mushroom" effect from outer space.
Wednesday was also a case where models did a decent job of visualizing the set-up. A cluster of storms rolled across Iowa and many of my counties late morning and early afternoon. They left what's called an outflow boundary which served to back the flow and generate the supercells which produced the tornadoes. Those eventually grew upscale and formed a line of thunderstorms which progressed through most of my area overnight. That's essentially what the hi-res models indicated 24 hours before the event. On the bright side, many areas that needed rain saw it as the storms rolled east.
Thursday and perhaps part of Friday, the disturbance which caused the ruckus Wednesday will slowly makes it way south. It remains draped over the region Thursday meaning showers and storms will continue to be around from time to time, mainly over the south near and south of HWY 30. The dynamics will not be what they were Wednesday and thus severe weather is not expected to be a major concern. However, a few marginally strong storms are possible especially south of HWY 34 in SE Iowa and WC Illinois. Tornadoes do not look to be a factor.
Friday the front remains close enough for some additional showers and storms over the far south with the main focus again near and south of HWY 34. These do not look to be strong but would have the ability to produce heavy downpours with the high levels of moisture that remain in place. Here's what the EURO and GFS show for additional rainfall Thursday through Friday.
The EURO
The GFS
The last of the rain will depart the south Friday night and that leaves us with a fine looking weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should be mostly sunny, dry, and seasonal with highs in the low to mid 80s. A keeper for sure. Roll weather...TS
