SUDDENLY IT'S SUMMER...
Tuesday was a carbon copy of Monday. In other words it was another lame day.
You can see the problem below. The temperature is at 63 and the dew point 62. The atmosphere is virtually saturated with a humidity of 97%. If not rain, that will get you low clouds and fog. So sun, no warmth, highs hold in the low to mid 60s. That in a nutshell was our day.
This is what it looked like from the perspective of the GOES satellite. The vast amount of cloud cover indicates a lot of water vapor surging north from the Gulf.
The EURO projects water vapor Wednesday evening to be 150 to as much as 200 percent of normal from Texas all the way to Hudson Bay.
This is the upper air pattern that's driving the moisture abnormally far north into Canada.
With time the strong southerly flow will allow the passage of a warm front by Thursday. That will eliminate the southeasterly surface flow and get rid of some of the grunge. That also opens the door to periods of sunshine and warmer surface temperatures. The combination of rich moisture and heating will also generate CAPE (Instability) which means the threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain much of the week. However, the primary forcing seems to set-up more over central Iowa so the rain chances will be higher out that way. In fact, after the passage of the warm front early Wednesday the rains look quite scattered and very much hit and miss. Showers and storms would most likely be diurnal in nature and without an organized front will be random in coverage. There will be lots of dry hours and some areas won't even see rain. Just keep in mind that into the weekend minimal 20-40 percent rain chances will exist. Low enough that you can make your weekend plans outside.
This is what the EURO shows for total rainfall the next 6 days. Notice how the axis of rain wraps around the eastern U.S. ridge that is drawing the moisture north. My area appears to be just far enough east to avoid the heaviest amounts. That said, the high water vapor will allow any showers or storms to be efficient precipitation producers. Where random rain pops up some locally heavy amounts are possible. Hopefully pretty isolated in coverage.
So, when can we expect some sunshine? To be honest, low clouds are tough to forecast and can easily bust a forecast. However, there should be a thinning of the cloud deck and eventually some breaks Wednesday. Assuming that happens, low to mid 70s are on the board
By Thursday we should see more in the way of sunshine and temperatures should continue to climb. Highs of 75 to 80 will transition to readings in the 80s over the weekend. This is the EURO meteogram for the next 10 days. Suddenly it's summer!
And when I say summer I mean humidity. The EURO and GFS both drive dew points above 70. We have not been anywhere close to that this year, especially with highs in the 80s. There will be a heat index that I can't wait to experience. Say what you want, I missed that in Maine last year and to me this is what summer in the Midwest is all about. I'm ready for that and a thunderstorm. I still haven't seen a decent boomer since I left Iowa last spring. Nothing like a good lightning display either which I never experienced in New England last summer. I need to catch up on lost time! Roll weather...TS
