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Last week things got a little heated around the Midwest with highs in the 90s and abundant humidity. It was as my grandpa was fond of saying, a tad sultry! Well, its all a thing of the past now and from the looks of things, were going to break the back of summer going forward. By all accounts, "the dog days of summer" are taking a vacation that will last much of the next two weeks. It's not surprising when I see a storm track at 500mb that looks like this August 8th.

Make no mistake about it, that's far from the lazy hazy days of summer! These are the 7 day average temperature departures such a set-up produces for the period Sunday August 6th to Sunday August 13th.

August 12th is shown as one of the cooler days. These are the highs the GFS shows.

Below are the departures for the 12th. It remains to be seen if we end up that cool but there is a very strong signal we are in for some unusually fresh weather in the long range.

The Climate Prediction Center is getting on the bandwagon too showing high chances of below normal temperatures in the August 7-11th period.

While it's no threat to most of humanity, the GFS also shows some pretty healthy snows for the polar regions of North America the next 2 weeks. Interesting...


For the time being, much of my area is on the edge of a surface high situated over the eastern Great Lakes. That's been beneficial lately as its forced last weeks heat and humidity into the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. It has also established the main storm track from the central Plains into Missouri. That area is squarely in the "ring of fire" with intense heat and moisture focused into the zone. Last night up to 8 inches of rain fell in parts of the Ozarks.

Some of that moisture is trying to buck the Great Lakes high and has spread back into the SW half of my area. However, the NW flow aloft is shearing it off going forward ensuring the best forcing and dynamics for the most significant storms and heavy rain to remain just outside of my area. That is a good thing in this case as the set up just to the SW is highly conducive to excessive rains and flash flooding into Wednesday night. A potent low-level jet, moisture in the 95-99% of climatology, and a stationary boundary is likely to result in localized rains in Missouri (the St. Louis area included) that could again reach 6-8 inches in spots. SPC has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall just to the south.

If you notice the slight risk just reaches up to the SE corner of Iowa and WC Illinois to places like Keokuk and Macomb. That's the big wild card, can some of those 1-2" rains make it into that part of my area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Defining the line is always difficult, especially when models still show some discrepancies. Radar late Tuesday evening shows a trend for the heaviest cells to be found southeast of a line from Oskaloosa to Ft. Madison, to about Macomb. That's just a rough guess but that's where I expect the bulk of the rain to occur. As you will see models all have their own ideas. The CAMS (convective allowing models such as the HRRR and NAMS) barely clip my SW counties. The GFS and especially the EURO are further NE and I do have some reservations about convection further south stealing much of the moisture that would allow at least light rain to get as far NE as the Quad Cities. In fact, I think the EURO is suffering from sort of feedback and I currently discount its northward bias. NE of the Quad Cities little if any rain is expected as the high suppresses it to the south. Here's what the latest guidance is suggesting for rain totals through Thursday.



The 3k NAM



Temperatures will be tricky Wednesday as clouds and potentially rain cooled air could keep highs in the 70s over the far south. Further north some breaks for sun or at least thinner clouds should allow highs to be significantly warmer in the low to mid 80s. Here's what the EURO is thinking.

Thursday there could be few lingering showers early in the south but after that most signs point to dry weather until Saturday night at the earliest. Temperatures will be warmer too ahead of the system that brings the big cool-down next week. Highs Thursday-Saturday should be in the low to mid 80s. Sunday a vigorous surface low and short wave approach towards evening. If we can get enough sunshine for some good heating highs may reach the upper 80s with significant moisture return. There's a good chances that showers and potentially thunderstorms will make their way into the area.

Lots of details to work out in coming days. Until next time, happy hump day and roll weather...



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