THE BUNNY BOUNCES IN DRY...
It's Easter weekend and so far our weather has been tolerable but far from exceptional. Friday's skies alternated between sunshine and clouds. Scattered light showers brought very brief periods of rain, sleet, graupel, and where I was in Dubuque, some snowflakes. Amounts of any variety were generally no more than a trace. Highs were in the range of 45 north to 50 south, resulting in a noticeable chill.
Saturday will be another day where high pressure dominates. That leaves the Midwest with below normal temperatures but at least in a position to enjoy periods of sunshine. Overall, readings look similar to Friday with highs mid 40s north to low 50s south. As you can see those readings are 10-15 degrees short of the norms.
Easter Sunday won't be anything special either but it does look better that 24 hours ago. As I alluded to yesterday, the GFS far overdone on precipitation Sunday with an approaching short wave. Sure enough, recent runs have come embraced the drier solution of the EURO. Additionally, what showers do develop should hold off until late in the day or more likely the evening hours. Therefore, the Easter bunny hops in Sunday morning nice and dry. No need for the "HARE" blower! Egg hunts will be dry too but crisp with little if any sunshine expected. Highs should remain in the 40s due to the abundance of clouds.
If we do see precipitation, and we should see some, Sunday night appears to be the time when it happens. Scattered light showers are expected as the strongest forcing moves through. Amounts look minimal, less than .05 of an inch. Here's what models are indicating for totals late Sunday though daybreak Monday.
The EURO, my preferred solution.
The GFS, likely too heavy in the far south.
It's possible a few places could see a few snowflakes mix in Sunday night but for sure anything that might accumulate remains well to our north. Here's what models are suggesting for snow totals.
Behind this system the weather looks cool and dry Monday and Tuesday with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s. Wednesday brings another chance of rain but at this point amounts are looking light, generally 1/4 inch or less. Once this departs, our weather fortunes look significantly better with a welcome warming trend anticipated by next weekend. You can see the trend of warming temperatures over the next 10 days with the EURO meteogram getting highs back into the low 70s next Thursday. (That's actually where we should be). Then the EURO wild showing 3 days of highs in the 80s. Confidence is low on that happening but I sure like the way it looks on paper right now.
Once we moderate it appears temperatures have a good chance of remaining at or above seasonal levels in the week 2 period (April 23-30th). Here's what the EURO indicates for departures during that period.
As for precipitation, after below normal precipitation in week one, the EURO now looks wetter week 2. Here's the average of the 2 week period ending April 30th.
Overall, things will get better in a week or so and they better, at that time it's only two more months until the days start getting shorter. But who's counting? Have a nice day and roll weather...TS.