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Here we are three days before Christmas and we're in a cozy place, but not for much longer. Our mild temperatures are set to take a tumble in 24 hours as a the coldest air of the season streaks across the Midwest mid-week. The actual front holds off until Wednesday afternoon but once it hits temperatures will tank and by the morning of Christmas Eve day temperatures will be over 40 degrees colder with a stiff NW breeze. These are the 24 hour temperature changes the EURO shows at 8:00am that day.

These are the actual forecast temperatures (again this is 8:00am Christmas Eve morning)

Here are the projected wind chills. That will get your attention.

Here's the trough that is delivering the chill at 500mb.

That's a pretty impressive looking set-up but the energy is in a position that takes the snowy side of the storm off to the NW of my area. Here's the surface low in Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon.

Most of that green is snow that's falling from the NW half of Iowa into Minnesota and NW Wisconsin Wednesday and Wednesday night. In my area there could be a dusting in spots, especially in the northwest half of the area. The latest model runs show snow showers and flurries developing Wednesday night in the cold air advection that could linger into Thursday morning. That's as close to a white Christmas as we will get. Some snowfall projections.

The EURO ensemble

The GFS ensemble

The Canadian GEM

The 12K NAM

Obviously the big story is not the snow showers and flurries but the wind and cold that blows through Wednesday night and Christmas Eve day. Wind chill values will remain below zero all day long on Thursday. If you are doing midnight mass (some churches are open for service Christmas Eve) here's what the GFS has for wind chills. That's frightful.

Christmas day will remain cold with wind chills in the range of 5-15 degrees much of the day. However, it will be dry and remain that way through at least Saturday for you holiday travelers. Over the weekend temperatures moderate as mother nature gives us all the gift of highs in the mid to upper 30s. That's it for now...TS


Hi everybody, We have had a tremendous response to our new book Derecho 911, Iowa's Inland Hurricane. We only have 74 copies left from the first printing and we continue to get requests about giving the book as a gift. It's too late to get an actual copy to you for Christmas, but we have come up with a couple solutions that will get the job done until it arrives. All you need to do is order your copy at and we will send you the card and youtube link that will work as the temporary alternative for the book. Here's what you will get.

1. THE FESTIVE CARD OPTION. I have created a special card that announces the recipient is getting a copy of Derecho 911 as a gift. You can print it out, wrap it up, add a bow, and give it as a substitute until the book arrives.

2. THE YOUTUBE PERSONAL GREETING ANNOUNCEMENT. I have also generated a 3:50 minute youtube video message wishing your loved one(s) a merry Christmas with the "personal" announcement they are receiving a copy of Derecho 911. It's a nice intimate touch. Be sure and watch it.

You can give either option or both. Thanks for considering the gift of weather and Carolyn and I are hoping you are enjoying the holiday season as much as we are. All the best...


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