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THE ELVES ARE BUSY AND THE COUNTDOWN IS ON....


What you are looking at below are boxes filled with packing envelops as my elves and I prepare shipping labels for the 1,000 Derecho 911, Iowa's Inland Hurricane books we will be shipping out later this week. It's a mad house but spirits are high and the work continues as it does at the North Pole to get items loaded into the sleigh for the all important journey.

17 DAYS UNTIL CHRISTMAS, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR, 1,000 PEOPLE CAN'T BE WRONG?

If you've been procrastinating and haven't found the right gift for that special person, there's still time to get my new book Derecho 911, Iowa's Inland Hurricane. Order by December 14th and get yours by Christmas. It's a thoughtful gift from Santa that will be appreciated by that hard to buy for individual. The book is coffee table style and color with more than 100 pictures, images, and graphics that I guarantee is entertaining, well researched, and very informative. For more info or to obtain your autographed copy please click on derechobook.com


BETTER WEATHER TO COME IN THE SHORT TERM


Needless to say I'm up to my rear end in alligators with this book thing but I will make an effort to give you some weather posts with value as I grind through the next couple of days. The short term forecast is essentially more of the same as the quiet weather pattern remains intact through Friday morning.


The only issue I'm concerned about Tuesday is fog potential early in the day. If indeed it's a factor it should lift in the morning leaving us with a mostly cloudy day. If things go really well maybe some late afternoon breaks for a bit of sun. That will take some doing. Temperatures will be cool but above normal around 40.


Wednesday and Thursday should be outstanding December days with some sunshine and a nice warm-up which will see temperatures approach 50 in the southern half of my area. These are the departures expected Wednesday afternoon.

Projected highs Wednesday on the GFS. Thursday should see comparable readings.

A WEEKEND STORM


Just in time for the weekend a storm is expected to make a run at the Midwest bringing the chance of precipitation. As you can see the last time we had measurable rain or snow was just before Thanksgiving (10 days ago). We'll run that out to 13 days before the change Friday.

Regarding the weekend storm, it has some potential and is likely to produce precipitation as it slowly crosses the region. The latest model runs are less phased which weakens the system compared to previous runs. It has also shifter the heavier precipitation band further south. Here's what models are now showing for total precipitation.


The EURO

The GFS

Now, here's where things get off track and challenging. The less phased solutions indicated tonight allow for a colder solution and actually produces the chance of snow in some part of my area. The EURO is the most phased and the most bullish on accumulation potential as a low swings south of my area. That allows a changeover of rain to snow with some decent totals in a narrow band. The EURO output has this for totals but I'm certain these numbers are highly inflated and I remind you what I'm showing is not a forecast, just raw model guidance.

Notice the difference between it and what the GFS shows with its less amplified and further south solution.

I think the bottom line is that there is lower than usual confidence with the weekend storm and we'll need to see where the trends take us in the next 24 to 36 hours. If the system continues to slip further south like tonight's runs indicated, this could have far less impact on the region than models currently indicate. I'll certainly have much more to say on the topic in coming days. For now, I say stand by and rest assured there is nothing to stress about yet. With that, it's back to making shipping labels. It's going to be a long night with the elves. (Lots of hot chocolate and candy canes). Roll weather...TS

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