THE END OF THE LINE...

We've had a remarkable run of comfortable temperatures lately, with highs 8 of the last 17 days remaining in the 70s at the NWS office in the Quad Cities. Only 1 day was above 82, and even that was tolerable at 85 degrees. We’ve got one more day to go before late August heat takes another swipe at the Midwest.

As you can see, the EURO is pretty bullish on the idea of a big warm-up, with highs in the Quad Cities shown in the 90s for 3 consecutive days starting Monday. In fact, if the model verifies (still to be determined), the 94 shown Tuesday would be the hottest temperature of the entire summer. So far, the highest reading has been 92 on June 17th.

We are rapidly approaching the point where extreme heat, (highs of 90 to 100 degrees plus), are harder and harder to achieve thanks to 2 months of shorter days and a lower sun angle. Below, you can see that in Cedar Rapids, the last recorded date of a 100 degree high is September 9th of 2013. The last 90 is October 6th, 1963, and the last 80 November 8th, 1999. Most years, those benchmarks are reached significantly earlier. As you can see in the graphic, we're not likely to experience a 90 degree high once October arrives until the following May.

As I touched on earlier, we are going to see some impactful heat arrive in the area by early next week. The initial signs of its entry will be a big spike in dew points later Saturday. This will also signal the fact strong warm air advection is underway as the low level jet punches into the area. This is likely to set off scattered thunderstorms Saturday night that have the potential to produce localized heavy rain. Some of the storms could linger into Sunday before a strong warm front lifts northeast of the region later in the afternoon.

Once firmly into the warm sector, very warm air aloft will likely CAP any widespread thunderstorm development Sunday night through much of Wednesday. That's not to say a couple storms might not bleed into the north, especially Monday night. However, at this time it appears they should be few and far between during this period and the focus becomes the intense heat and humidity that looks to be coming. Both Monday and Tuesday appear to be chalked full of steam. At least for now, Tuesday is slightly hotter on the EURO, with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Dew points on the EURO are top shelf Tuesday, hovering near 80.

The combination yields heat index values well over 100, some as high as 109! Heat headlines are looking like a given.

The NWS experimental heat risk graphic shows a major risk of heat related impacts in the red shaded areas.

Wednesday is shown to be slightly less hot and humid, but again should be toasty. Finally, a vigorous short wave digs into the Midwest Thursday that brings relief and scattered showers and storms. The effects of the cooler, drier air take a while to get fully established, but highs go from the low 80s next Friday to the mid 70s next Saturday. By then, dew points will be down more than 25 degrees into the lower 50s. That will spell a dramatic end to the muggy weather of early and mid-week.

Over the next week, here's what models are indicating for rainfall totals from any showers and storms that occur during that 7-day period.

The EURO

The GFS

Enjoy this final day of comfortable conditions, the heat will soon be on. Happy Friday and roll weather...

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