THE HEAT STREAK IS FINALLY OVER

Sunday evening there was a change in the air - temperatures were quickly falling to the west compared to the same time yesterday by 20-30°. Finally, an truly remarkable stretch of late-season heat is nearing the end as a cold front sweeps from west to east accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.

At midnight Sunday night, showers with some locally moderate to heavy rain were continuing as expected from southeast Minnesota, through central Iowa and into southeast Nebraska. The rain chances will continue through the night and into Monday across our area from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, although the rain will not be as heavy and beneficial to busting the drought.

The HRRR continues with the theme of scattered showers on and off through Monday locally, and it has increased confidence of a little higher totals which would be great as well regarding the worsening drought. By Tuesday morning most of the rain will be out as high pressure takes over and leads to a mostly-sunny sky. Beautiful weather takes over Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

Tuesday through Thursday are looking exceptional with sunshine and seasonally-cooler temperatures. Lows look to dip into the low/mid 40s! Open the windows and enjoy the fresh air. We are looking at a warming trend by next weekend with highs likely pushing into the 80s again by Sunday/Monday of next week. That next flip cooler though by Oct. 15/16 might be a longer-lasting autumn temperature swing.

The NAO and AO are hinting at going below zero in the coming week - a sign that typically produces cooler temperatures across the Midwest and Great Lakes region in October. This would favor a return to an autumn assuming all things go well and continue to trend in the right direction.

In yesterday's post I alluded to the fact I though the long-range models were not capturing the cool down well enough based on what the teleconnections are showing. Over the last 24 hours notice the European Ensemble is trending cooler across the Pacific Northwest - a sign I think the models are starting to get a better handle on the mid-October pattern. Now it's a garbage in/garbage out scenario. If we do not see the strong NAO/AO teleconnection signal we will not see this cooldown. So it will be dependent on that panning out. But, this is a sign we are moving in the right direction.

To be clear, I am not expecting massive cold air outbreaks and snowstorms, I am just trying to get our temperatures back to normal levels this time of year. Sept. 25-Oct. 4 had highs in the 80s every day in 2025 in the Quad Cities. Looking at that same stretch in history there were four years with an average temperature (highs and lows averaged together) of at least 70°. Three of those four were in the last five years.

Looking at just high temperatures 2025 takes the crown with an average high of 87.0° during the Sept. 25-Oct. 4 period.

Another interesting statistic is the fact the first five days of October were at least 84° - that has only happened one other time in history and that was 1922.

Enjoy the cooler temperatures and have a great week!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart