THE KITCHEN SINK...

In my last post Friday, we talked about how both the GFS and EURO were showing an extended period of temperatures at or above freezing through January 17th. Here are the numbers that were indicated, which I had a suspicion would end up nothing more than eye candy.

The GFS

The EURO

Here was my response to those of you who read my post: I'm solid with the idea of the warmth for about 7 days. Then I think, what about the following 7 days. It's common knowledge that the further out in time you go, the more skill scores go down. Could a cold front sneak in day 10 or 11 and suddenly put an end to the mild readings. That's a legit concern and something that gives me pause, a potential bump in the road that needs to be watched.

Beyond that, my comment on the GFS: Not only does the GFS have a similar trend, it's even warmer at its peak. It's got 11 days in the 40s and 50s, with one at a whopping 62. The run shows 15 consecutive days with highs above freezing. Two thoughts about that. One, 55 to 62 in January is a feat that's very hard to accomplish on a single day, let alone 5 consecutive days. That's a red flag and leads me to think that it's too warm and that the EURO is more realistic. Secondly, I'm reminded that about 50% of the days are 20–30 degrees above the normal high of 29. That's really quite spectacular and rare. Is that even attainable? Probably not to that extent.

Fast-forward to today and what is now shown, the coming warmth is routed this weekend and that's the end of the dream of 2 weeks above freezing. The GFS shows us below freezing by Sunday and has 7 consecutive days below 32 degrees to end the period. All the concerns I underlined in my Friday post are coming to fruition. You know the old saying, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is!

By the way, the EURO is still above freezing into much of next week before it goes into a colder mode. For sure, it seems too warm Sunday and Monday. If current trends hold, it should be below freezing as early as Sunday. After that, I'm thinking the GFS may be far too cold and the EURO a bit too warm in the 2-week period. It would not surprise me to see something more in the middle.

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A TOUGH FORECAST AHEAD...

To be straight, this has been a really tough stretch of weather to predict since mid-December. Models are struggling mightily to see trends after 7 days, making me very cautious to put much stock in what they are indicating beyond that.

Even worse, as early as 3 days from now, both the EURO and GFS deterministic models are having phasing troubles. This all stems from energy that is pouring into the western U.S. from the Pacific the next 24–48 hours. You can see it plow into the Rockies below, where the northern and southern branches of the jet try to complete a merger Sunday. This is the latest run of the GFS, which indeed shows some phasing of cold air and moisture to create a respectable surface low that tracks into Illinois Saturday.

This scenario (if it holds) is significant because it puts us in the position of being in the cold sector where snow could fall. The GFS shows this for snowfall late Friday night and Saturday.

Believe it or not, that is far less than was shown just 6 hours earlier on the 18z run shown below.

Before that, the 12z run 6 hours earlier, had no snow at all...a nothingburger!

Basically, 2 of the last 3 runs have shown some degree of phasing, but nothing back to back with any consistency that would lead to much in the way of confidence regarding amounts. Kind of like throwing darts with a blindfold.

Old faithful, better known as the EURO, is phased enough in its latest run, to show 1–3 inches of snow across the NW third of my NW counties.

Its previous run indicated this for snow, but now has cut out my southeast counties from much in the way of accumulations and lowered amounts further NW in SE Minnesota, implying some phasing but less than 6 hours earlier.

So the bottom line is we have lots of uncertainty as to what happens this weekend, but trends for Saturday are colder and somewhat snowier, especially NW of the Quad Cities. The question is, will trends be similar later Tuesday afternoon. It all comes down to phasing and the strength and track of whatever system develops. I do think we see some snow Saturday, with the northwest half of the region most favored. More on that in my next post.

RAIN COME THURSDAY

What is more certain is that we are in for several more days of mild weather to close out the week. Behind a weak system Tuesday, clouds should be plentiful, but highs should still range from 39 north to 47 south. With the addition of some sunshine, Wednesday readings are expected to climb into the upper 40s north to mid 50s south. Outstanding for January 7th.

Thursday afternoon and evening, some energy from the developing western trough will break off and sneak into the Midwest, developing a fast moving swath of rain. Some of this could be quite beneficial, with totals 1/2 to nearly an inch in the southeast. Even with precipitation developing, highs should reach the low to mid 40s, well above normal. Here's what models are suggesting for rain for later Thursday.

The GFS

The EURO

Friday we are in-between systems and still on the mild side with highs remaining in the range of 43-49 from north to south. Clouds will be on the increase by late afternoon as the next systems gains steam to the southwest. By Saturday, the GFS runs a surface low into NE Illinois, far enough east to produce snow over the region.

The EURO is close on the track, but has less cold air and has more in the way of rain than snow early Saturday before a transition to snow before it ends Saturday evening.

Again, this is all speculation at this point, so no sense digging any deeper until we get a fresh look at trends later Tuesday. Until then, roll weather...TS