THE MUSIC WAS SOFT WHERE IT NEEDED TO BE LOUD...
Last Friday I said in my post that, "it ain't over until the fat lady sings" referring to the rain system that crossed the Midwest over the weekend. Well, today the lady has sung her last note as that system finally spins its way out of the Midwest. For some in my southern counties the music was loud with as much as 6 inches of rain. In other areas it was short and hardly heard as the rain was once again light and disappointing in some of the drier areas of the north. These are the 7 day rain totals, most of this falling since last Friday. The proof is in the pudding.
Those amounts were half of what's normal in the north while nearly two times above what's typical in the south.
Things get really interesting when you look at the precipitation departures since early January. Notice there are places in NE Iowa that are 8 inches below normal while 150 miles away near Mt. Pleasant, the surplus is greater that 11 inches.
Going back a full year the deficit near Mason City is more than 14 inches below normal while down in Missouri near Columbia amounts are above normal by as much as 17 inches. Again, note the huge departures in Iowa from the NC part of the state to the far SE. That's really dramatic.
So, where do we go from here? Well, as I indicated the weekend system is in the process of filling and weakening as it wobbles off to the east. That should leave us with a better day Tuesday although there will be some lingering clouds and a slight chance of a brief shower, mainly east of the Mississippi. For most areas though it will be a day of mixed sun and clouds and warmer temperatures. High return to the 80s and it will be a tad on the muggy side.
Wednesday, especially Wednesday night the weather turns active again with a vigorous short wave traversing the Midwest. Ahead of it Wednesday looks warm and quite muggy as return flow kicks in. The GFS indicates dew points in the low to perhaps mid 70s.
Dew points that high indicate extensive moisture as indicated by water vapor levels that once again approach 2 inches by late Wednesday.
All that moisture and temperatures in the mid 80s will yield substantial instability. The GFS show CAPE values in the range of 2,400 to 4,000 J/kg. That's a lot of fuel and energy for strong thunderstorms.
SPC sees that potential and already has issued an enhanced outlook for many parts of the Midwest. All modes of severe weather are possible, especially in the enhanced section of the outlook.
The GFS is very aggressive with storm development Wednesday evening showing storms lighting up across northern Iowa into Wisconsin. Along with the severe weather potential there is also a good chance that where storms fire, heavy rains will follow.
The front only slowly makes it through the area Thursday evening before the front stalls somewhere near the Iowa border Friday. That keeps the chance of scattered showers and storms going at least into Friday.
As I always say, the positioning of the short wave energy, it's timing, and mesoscale details such as outflow boundaries will determine where the most active storms develop and where the heaviest rains occur.
I will say, early indications point to the area north of I-80 for the stronger storms and heaviest rains Wednesday afternoon and night. Just as an early guide, here's the GFS and EURO rainfall forecasts through Friday night. You can already see those issues popping up on the models.
The GFS
The EURO
Clearly there are things to fine tune and we will attempt to do that later today and Wednesday before any storms arrive. Meantime, we are looking at a better day today. Enjoy and roll weather...TS
