THE SMORGASBOARD OF WEATHER...
Thursday will start soggy and mild around the region as strong warm advection brings heavy showers and storms. As the day wears on the warm front causing them slowly but steadily advances north and by late afternoon should be over northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin. That does two things. It temporarily shuts the rain down in most areas from north to south in the morning and it allows temperatures to warm significantly. Here's what readings are expected to look like on the EURO. You can clearly see where the warm front is located. My concern is that the front is slower than projected leaving readings cooler than what the operational models are showing, especially north of HWY 30.
The GFS is similar but a couple degrees cooler as the model is slightly slower in the push of the warm front.
One thing we should all notice is the higher levels of moisture with dew points surging into the mid 60s on the EURO. It's been some time since we saw them that high.
That contributes to instability and CAPE and while it's not extreme it's there for thunderstorms. If