THE SNOW MACHINE WORKS
SNOW TONIGHT FOR MOST, ANOTHER MAJOR STORM FRIDAY?
The snow machine which has not worked very well the past few years has been fixed and is running like a red top. That means we've got a couple more cracks at accumulating snow with another significant event possible Friday.
The first round develops this evening and is part of a fast moving disturbance that exits by 2:00am. A brief but at times moderate to heavy band of snow is likely from near Cedar Rapids to Clinton and off to Morrison. Models are still showing some spread but point to a swath north of that line that could dump 2-3 inches of accumulation. The swath is narrow, with most amounts more in the 1 to perhaps 1.5" inch category. Visibilities will be low for a period and roads will become slick. Here's what models are indicating for amounts.
The HRRR
The 3k NAM
The EURO
The 12k NAM
The GEM
The GFS
The official NWS snow forecast
You can see a well-defined circulation in Nebraska that will generate the snow beginning in the NW around 7:00pm
MORE HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY? IT'S POSSIBLE...
After a quiet day Thursday, another significant storm enters the Midwest Friday. Models are still bouncing around a bit on the track, with the EURO slightly further east today and the GFS a hair west. There is enough agreement to feel confident wind and snow will impact much of my area. I would not be surprised to see a winter storm watch issued for a large part of the area. Accumulations will again be highly influenced by the track of the system, but 5–9 inches is a range that seems reasonable as an early estimate.
The EURO is suggesting this for totals Friday into early Saturday.
The GFS has this for the same period.
The 12k NAM has this. It and the 3k NAM both handle the upper level features differently and show the forcing and heavier snow band further NW. That's possible, but currently not the favored solution. It does point to the fact there is some doubt in how this plays out.
The NAM solutions do bother me, as they really throw some doubt on what otherwise seemed like a cut and dry set-up. I would caution that confidence is moderate at best. Changes are still possible. More to come... Roll weather...TS
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