THE TIDE HAS TURNED...

July 2025 is going to go down in the record books as one of the wettest on record in Iowa and parts of surrounding states. Showers and thunderstorms have been abundant, and so has the humidity that's fueled the heavy rains. But now, the tide has turned, and our weather is in a transformative phase that will bring us a taste of September. Sounds enticing to me.

Before we dig into that, another healthy rain has come and gone, one of many that's fallen over the past 7 weeks, Iowa has been at the epicenter of the heavy rains with up to 21 inches measured in Forest City, Iowa since June 1st (the start of summer). Oelwein has racked up 18.4 inches, with 16.5 inch totals in Waterloo and Independence over the same 2-month period.

Our latest rainfall event, covering the period July 28-30th, was the most widespread and significant in the NW half of my area with the highest rain total reported in Hanover, Illinois where 4.25 inches came down. Here are some other reports from the NWS in the Quad Cities.

If it wasn't raining in July, chances are it was flat out sultry. Steve Gottschalk of Lowden, Iowa, has been a coop observer for more than 60 years. He tells me he has had 38 days with dew points of at least 70 degrees since June 15th. 24 of those days they were 75 or higher, which is considered oppressive. The icing on the cake for Steve was 3 days with 80 degree dew points, rain forest levels. Additionally, he reports 18 days with heat index values of 100 degrees or more. He's had 21 days since June 15th with highs in the 90s. Throw in all the rain, and we've had a rough go of it lately. At least the grass is green, and the corn is tall!

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GOOD DAYS TO COME...

Good things come to those who wait, and our reward is on the way. The water vapor imagery shows in yellow a large plume of dry air Wednesday evening, surging south of the Canadian border.

It takes this air mass with water vapor greater than 2 inches.

And replaces it with this. In some of NC Illinois water vapor drops from 2.10 inches to .39 the next 48 hours. That's a radical shift to dry air.

The effects for Midwesterners will be some early September weather conditions, featuring highs in the 70s and lows well into the 50s. It remains to be seen, but if the 3K NAM is correct, lows Friday morning are down to 50 over much of EC Iowa. Mid 40s are indicated in the bogs of NC Wisconsin.

That's followed up by a sensational day Friday that promises highs in the low to mid 70s in many areas along with lots of sunshine! The GFS shows 75 in the Quad Cities, which would mirror the average high for September 20th. How about that.

The sensational conditions will last through the weekend and early next week before summer wakes up again late next week. Here's what the EURO is indicating for temperatures through August 10th.

With many rivers and streams around EC and SE Iowa in various degrees of flooding, we can sure use a break from the recent monsoons.

It looks like mother nature will deliver with generally dry conditions anticipate through next Tuesday. The EURO indicates this for total precipitation Thursday through next Tuesday.

By the middle of next week, the flow begins to flatten, allowing warmer weather that could at least bring the risk of scattered storms back to parts of the Midwest. Fortunately, it does not look to be a long-lasting trend in what should be a rather progressive pattern.

That said, come the end of next week, the pleasant weather ahead will be replaced for a time by temperature departures that look like this Friday, August 8th.

Warmth once again overwhelms the pattern for at least a couple of days. But it's chump change compared to what we've been dealing with the past month. Enjoy the refreshing break ahead and by all means, roll weather....TS