TRICK OR TREAT, SMELL MY FEET

Before we get to the nuts and bolts of Halloween, a little bit about my day Thursday. After 1/10th of an inch of rain Wednesday night, the first in 12 days, skies cleared early (as I said it would). I was blissfully eating my brown sugar pop tarts staring out at a cobalt blue sky. I was an uneventful morning until Carolyn strolled in and said, hey do you want to come with me and Nimbus (our dog) to Swiss Valley Nature preserve and walk the trails?

Before the words got out of her mouth, my mind had already processed the fact that the trails were split by a trout stream, one I had never fished. Not only that, it's been stocked regularly with over 10,000 rainbow trout since last spring. I had my license, trout stamp, and power bait, now all I had to do was get Carolyn's nod of approval to fish, while she and Nimbus walked. She gave me the thumbs up, and 15 minutes later I was in the car with my pole and gear waiting for them organize.

When we arrived, not knowing the lay of the stream, I hit the first hole and cast away. 30 seconds later I was reeling in a nice fat trout. My next cast was productive too and in just over a half an hour I had my limit of five. I never had to try another hole. I don't know what I expected, but it sure wasn't to walk away with my limit. I fished for another hour and threw several back before Carolyn and Nimbus returned...well exercised and ready to head home. At that point I did what any good man would, I packed up my gear and walked PROUDLY with my fish in visible tow to the car. Guess what we had for dinner? Fried potatoes and baked trout and it was fabulous.

Anyway, the last thing I expected out of the day was a successful fishing trip and a fresh meal caught by me. Thank you Carolyn and Nimbus for making it possible. A good time was had by all and I avoided walking the trails. Well played if you ask me!

SOME WET PERIODS AHEAD, THE TRICK IS KEEPING IT DRY FOR TREATERS HALLOWEEN

After another excellent fall day, our weather gets a bit dicey at times as we approach the bewitching hours of Saturday. As I write this, clouds and rain are already gathering to the south and will make their presence known locally Friday and parts of Saturday. The driver will be a slow moving swath of warm advection that will provide the lift and forcing for occasional showers and thunderstorms. It won't rain all the time but clouds will be prevalent both Friday and Saturday when it isn't. The lack of sunshine will ratchet temperatures down on Friday with highs mainly in the range of 55 to 60 between and raindrops.

HALLOWEEN

At this point, while there should be plenty of clouds, Halloween, they may thin enough to bring some peaks of sunshine Saturday afternoon with the warm advection slowly pushing north. If we can pull that off highs should be warmer reaching the upper 50s far north to the mid to upper 60s from I-80 south where more sun is possible. As for occasional showers and storms, they should lift out of the south in the morning and clear the north late in the day as the boundary heads for Wisconsin. If the timing remains consistent, that should mean most if not all of the area is rain free for trick or treating and other haunted activites. Temperatures from 5:00 to 9:00pm should fall into the category of the low to mid 50s north, to the upper 50s to near 60 south. That's actually not creepy and still above normal.

By the way don't forget, daylight savings time ends Saturday night and that means you can turn the clock back before you go to bed and get an extra hour of sleep Sunday. Never a bad thing!

SOGGY TIMES STILL IN ORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

Sunday looks mild and quiet as we await a more significant storm which impacts the region late Monday into early Wednesday. Recent trends suggest less phasing which should cut rain totals slightly, keeps winds more in the 30-35 mph range, and limit the cold air some on the storms backside. Even so, the storm has a tropical connection and rain totals still are coming hot around 1 to 2 inches. Here's what the ensembles of the EURO and GFS are showing for potential rain totals late Monday through Wednesday.

The EURO

The GFS

The National Blend of models shows this for amounts over the same period.

Once this wet event pulls out, cooler air gradually filters in during week 2 with several days in the 40s showing up after November 5th or 6th. Here's what the GFS and EURO are indicating for 2 week temperature trends.

The GFS

The EURO

All right then, things are still simmering in that old weather cauldron just in time for the spooks and goblins to dish it out. You've been forewarned, screaming and moaning will not change the outcome. Happy Halloween weekend and roll weather....TS.