TURNING UP THE HEAT (GRADUALLY)...
The last few days have certainly been good ones for weather here in the central Midwest. We've seen no rain and temperatures have been exceptional considering we're in the heart of summer. Here's the departures for the past 5 days. If it's gonna be 4-6 degrees below normal, now is the time to do it.
While it will be a gradual process, temperatures and humidity will slowly climb going into the weekend. That correlates well with the (MJO) Madden Julien Oscillation which shows a progression into phase 5 (see the dotted green lines below).
The MJO phase 5 analogs for July indicate warm temperatures over all the central Midwest
The 500mb jet stream pattern depicted on the GFS Sunday night certainly has a toasty look to it. There's a heat dome centered over Kansas and the mean jet is displaced well to the north over southern Canada.
However, there is a slight NW component to the flow which may allow for some minor penetration of back door fronts keeping the blistering heat with highs well over 100 confined to western Iowa and the Plains. The day 5-10 temperature departures look this way. Notice the bright red areas out west where the GFS shows highs up to 116 degrees in SC Nebraska.
Here's what the GFS is depicting for highs July 31st.
Before that blast, readings this Sunday on the GFS are up to 111 near Beatrice, Nebraska.
We're not anywhere close to that but if the GFS is right heat index values up to 105 are possible in the south. That's the result of highs in the low 90s and dew points in the range of 75-80.
As I mentioned earlier this is going to take a few days to really kick in as the burner is on low. However, the flames will eventually take a toll as readings rise a couple degrees each day. Same thing for humidity.
As for rain, nothing really obvious sticks out in terms of a specific day but my northern and eastern counties will be near the edge of the heat dome in an area known as the ring of fire. It is possible that at some point an MCS (thunderstorm complex) will fire in the Dakotas or Minnesota. From there its cold pool and the upper level flow would drive it southeast where it clips my northeastern counties. Something to watch.
As it is now, here's what the EURO and GFS show for rainfall through Sunday. Nothing to write home about.
All that said, Tuesday won't look or feel much different than yesterday as the heat continues to gather strength to our west. The dog days of summer are here! Roll weather...TS