TURNING UP THE HEAT, IN A GOOD WAY...
We're fast approaching Thanksgiving and rest assured there will be plenty to be thankful for the rest of this week. The eastern ridge that's brought us some fine November weather is rebuilding and that will bring another round of Indian Summer. Here's the 500mb jet stream pattern Thursday.
That results in these temperature departure s Thursday afternoon.
Readings 20-22 degrees above normal equate to highs that look like this on Thursday.
Readings will begin to cool some over the weekend with the addition of clouds and showers but overall temperatures the next 5 days (through November 21st) should average out 10-13 degrees above average.
That's a heck of a week and it will add to the warmth we've already enjoyed this November. Take a look at these departures through November 15th around the Midwest thanks to the Iowa Mesonet. We are clearly on track for one of out warmest Novembers on record.
This next surge of warmth will have one caveat, a common one this time of year. It's wind. Gusts Wednesday and Thursday will have a good chance of exceeding 30 mph, perhaps pushing 40 Thursday. The price you pay for mid 60s in November!
The EUROhain, it looks like that will hold off until Friday night as a front settles into the area and stalls. The EURO is further south and is thus cooler and drier than the GFS solution. Here's the difference it makes in where the heaviest rainfall sets-up this weekend.
Dramatically different for the same time period is the GFS.
This discrepancy could even have implications on precipitation type. Before the system departs, the EURO tugs in enough cold air to bring at least a brief change over to some wet snow Saturday night or Sunday. I'm far from convinced this will happen due to the lack of existing cold air. However, the EURO does show some accumulations in parts of the area so it's on the table...(but in my opinion it is "very unlikely").
The more northerly track of the GFS keeps the snow north of the Minnesota border which is a solution that seems far more reasonable to me.
We'll let this simmer in the pot hoping for better consistency in the next 24 hours. However, the big focus (with high confidence the rest of the wee) will be the mild, breezy, and dry conditions that are expected across the central Midwest.
As far as impactful winter weather is concerned beyond the weekend system, I'm still not seeing any signs of the "cold air" that can and often develops this time of year. Seasonal to above normal is what I'm expecting through Thanksgiving and the end of November. After that I'm hopeful for a transition to a colder stormier pattern in early December. I guess we'll get what we get but I'm closely watching that time period. Roll weather...TS
A FLASHBACK WITH A MEANING
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