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As expected winter storm warnings have now been raised for the majority of my area from noon Monday through noon Tuesday. Widespread snows of 5-10" are anticipated with enough wind (gusts 20-30) to produce some areas of blowing and drifting.

The official NWS snowfall forecast for my region looks pretty good to start with but something that needs to be addressed is the wide range in amounts across the north. The reason for this is an intrusion of dry air on the north edge of the snow shield that will make for a very sharp cut-off in accumulations. A minor shift north or south in that part of my area could make a difference of 2-4". Also, with the system slowly weakening as it crosses the region amounts east of the Mississippi will be less than those to the west. I should also mention that in the far southeast some freezing rain and sleet is expected which cuts into totals a few inches there.

I did get some new models and the GFS stayed pretty close to its last run, bucking the trend of the EURO and hi-res models to be lighter on total precip. and further south. It came in this way using the Kuchera method.

I compared it to the previous run and it's just a bit lighter on amounts but in most cases only an inch or less. Here's the side by side with the latest in the left.

Here's the new 12 and 3K NAM. They are in the EURO camp and came down some on amounts, especially as you progress closer to and across the Mississippi.

The 12K NAM

The 3K NAM

Personally, I think the GFS will move in this direction if trends hold in the EURO. I will not have a new look at it until after 6:00pm. I will get something out on it as soon as possible once it arrives. That's where we are for now. Waiting on that new EURO as I will be putting a lot of stock in what it shows! Roll weather...TS


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