WELCOME TO THE NORTH POLE

I COULD VERY MUCH USE YOUR ASSISTANCE

THE FUTURE OF THE SITE DEPENDS ON YOU. 

Hi everyone, as you know, TSwails.com is a no-pay site; existing on voluntary personal donations. Every year I ask those of you who find value in the site to make a financial donation you feel is worthy. Please reflect on the number of times you have visited us in the last year. If the information or knowledge you gained was valuable, it's my hope you will join the loyal group of contributors that's kept TSwails.com operational since 2013. I'm suggesting $20.00, which is roughly a nickel a day. Less than 4% of my readers donate, so your gift, no matter the size, is not only appreciated, it helps immensely.

PLEASE CLICK HERE TO ASSIST

HIGH IMPACT COLD GRIPS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY

Intensely cold air direct from the North Pole has engulfed the region and will be with us until further notice. An EXTREME COLD WARNING is in effect for wind chills of 30 to 40 below.

Anyone traveling or outside for any period of time needs to dress appropriately. Exposed skin and frost bite can occur in a matter of minutes.

This is high-end cold, something that replicates life at the North Pole. In fact, temperatures relative to average locally are colder than anyplace in North America. These are the expected departures much of the day Friday.

The GFS shows the 0 degree isotherm well into central Illinois Friday morning with the freezing line advancing into Arkansas and Tennessee where a significant ice storm is expected Saturday.

Around 8:00am Friday, the EURO shows actual temperatures as cold as 20 below in Dubuque, with much of the area from I-80 north around 15 to 20 below.

Wind chills of 40 below or colder are widespread in my northern counties and as cold as 53 below in northern Wisconsin. That's just flat out nasty!

The extreme cold is associate with a massive, 1053 high shown over Saskatchewan Thursday night. Notice the strong pressure gradient that is driving the cold air into the middle of the nation.

Saturday morning the high is over Wisconsin at 1046mb, close enough to ease the pressure gradient and deliver less wind Saturday. That lowers wind chills to more manageable levels of 10-15 below, despite temperatures only being in the range of 5 below north to -3 far south. Also, with the high drifting slowly east, moisture is pulled north on its backside generating a winter storm that will impact much of the nation.

Look at the vast extent of winter storm warnings and watches that extend from New Mexico to Maine. Snow, sleet and ice will be widespread.

In fact, by Sunday morning, look at how precipitation has literally exploded just to our southeast.

So what does it mean for my area? The jury is still out, with the GFS still not showing much snow this far northwest. However, most other models favor enough phasing to get some moisture back into the southeastern third of Iowa that falls in the form of accumulating snow. I think this is a more likely scenario, and thus I feel advisory snows are quite possible back into far southeast Iowa and WC Illinois. It's not a sure thing yet, but what I believe is the most likely outcome. I expect light snow to move into southern Iowa Saturday and then move E/NE Saturday night before shifting out of the SE Sunday morning. Here's what I'm seeing from models for snowfall output. I'll comment below.

The GFS (what I think is an outlier)

The EURO

The Canadian RDPS 10k

The 12k NAM

The SREF ensembles

Aside from the GFS, if you average the other models out you get a strong signal for 1-3 inch totals over the SE half of my area, even 4 in the far south. The 2-inch line runs roughly from Ottumwa to a little southeast of the Quad Cities and Sterling. I doubt much more than a dusting falls north of HWY 30. That seems reasonable for now. Fresh data Friday should confirm or deny the idea.

With any snow falling into temperatures of 0–5 degrees, it is going to be very light and fluffy with snow ratios over 20:1. It's a bit unusual to see much in the way of accumulation in air that cold and dry. Once snow moves out Sunday morning the area remains very cold with the EURO showing this for readings Saturday through Wednesday. Several more days of single digit highs and below normal lows.

With northwest flow in place, I do not expect to see much if any snow next week through Thursday in a clipper dominated flow. There is something indicated next Friday that's interesting, but a week out that is low confidence at best.

That's enough for me tonight. Signing out from the North Pole (make that Dubuque), I'm headed for a warm, cozy spot. Roll weather...TS.