WHAT ABOUT SNOW, AN UPDATE

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HIGH IMPACT COLD GRIPS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING

As expected, the arctic charge was mounted and has been met. Wind chills of 44 below were observed early Friday at both Oelwein and Independence, Iowa. Dubuque was right behind at -42. Actual lows reached 20 below in Charles City and Decorah, with Dubuque registering 19 below.

The cold moderates slightly the remainder of the weekend, but more important, winds will decrease as the massive polar high builds into the region. Despite temperatures zero to 15 below through Saturday morning, wind chills will ease to 15 to 30 below, still harsh but not low enough to reach extreme cold warning status. Instead, cold weather advisories will be in place Friday night and Saturday morning, probably beyond that in much of my northwest counties.

The next hurdle is what to do about snow in my southern counties from the major storm that will sock areas just to the southeast. New data still suggests the NW fringe of the snow shield will clip parts of SE Iowa and WC Illinois. There is still some disagreement between the GFS and other models (including the EURO), as to how far northwest. I still suspect the GFS is too far southeast, but one thing on its side is the extremely cold, dry air the snow shield is bucking. Wherever the cut-off line ends up, it will be sharp, with little to no snow to the northwest. At this point, 24 hours before any snow arrives in the south, I still agree with the EURO solution, which has support from most other guidance aside from the GFS. Generally, the 2" line runs from near Ottumwa to just southeast of the Quad Cities and Sterling. The 1 " line is not much further north than the 2" line. Here's what the latest raw model output is indicating for snow.

The EURO

The GFS, the least aggressive for snow in my area.

The HRRR

The 3k NAM

The Canadian RDPS 10K

The SREF

The official NWS forecast shows some pretty good spreads indicating the uncertainty in how far northwest the heavier amounts will get.

Most of what snow falls in the southeast comes from late Saturday morning into early Sunday morning. After that more cold air (although not as extreme) is in the forecast much of next week. Roll weather and if you find value in the site, please consider a donation to my fund raiser...TS