WINTER QUIETLY RUSTLING...
Wednesday was a heck of day by January standards. Highs in my area were in the 40s and low 50s areawide with readings steadily warming as you go southwest from here. Temperatures from Dallas to San Antonio were as warm as the mid to upper 80s.
Here's a snapshot of Texas temps at 2:30 Wednesday afternoon. Wouldn't that be nice!
From Iowa to Texas highs were 20-30 degrees above seasonal levels.
The last few days I've had several messages inquiring, "where's winter, and is it ever going to show up again"? There's no doubt we've had it good in my immediate area so far. The accumulated winter season severity index in the Quad Cities is just a tick above mild status (the lowest level possible) as you can see in the graphic below.
Snow has been seriously lacking (as usual), with my area running 25-50 percent below normal, most spots at 8" or less to date.
Here's the estimates on seasonal accumulation through January 11th. You go 3-4 hours NW of my area and the white gold has been more than plentiful. The rich keep getting richer.
So back to the question, is winter coming? I personally think it's quietly rustling and will wake up to make an appearance that leads not only to a colder pattern, but most likely a snowier one as well. For more than a week I've been watching the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) make its projected swing into colder phases. It's just now entering phase 8 and between now and February 9th plows through 8, 1, 2 before skipping into 3 in February.
Here you can see by way of temperature analogs how 8, 1, and 2 are considered cold January phases.
From there we hit phase 3 in February and you can see it's not only cold but wet over the region.
Then you have the added teleconnections of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) and the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation). These are projected to become negative and the associated temperature analogs also favor colder conditions.
The AO
The EPO.
SO, WHY ARE WE MILD?
In my line of thinking there are two reasons we remain mild and will continue to do so for at least another week. One is the lag time involved for the colder phases to mature once entered, which can take up to a week. The second, which I feel is the true catalyst is the EPO. When it's positive as it is now, there is minimal ridging over the west coast. That is a key ingredient in building cold high pressure in Canada and delivering the chill into the pattern here in the Midwest.
The EPO does not enter its negative phase with any authority until January 20-22nd. (see the EPO daily forecast 2 graphics above.) That is when I'm betting on winter making it's presence known. I've also begun seeing support for the idea from the EURO and Canadian GEM, with both models achieving better skill score verification than the GFS in recent times. Here is what they show for a 500mb jet stream pattern January 21st. Note the ridge going up over the west and blocking (in red) over the top in Canada.
The EURO
The Canadian GEM
That is a very interesting pattern as it opens the door to colder weather but it also shows some real potential for snow if such a 500mb set-up is realized.
January 26th, the day 15 temperature anomalies on the EURO control are quite cold over most of the nation.
Here's the departures for the previous 5 days leading up to January 26th starting (ta dah) January 21st.
And, while much can change both the EURO and GFS long range snowfall forecasts are bullish on snowfall. I'm not big on snowfall output at that distance with track and thermal profiles uncertain (and their being so instrumental in determining amounts). Big model swings are common from one day to the next. However, I do put some stock in trends and the big 2 are showing that some part of the Midwest gets in on significant snow between January 19th and 23rd. Snow or not, I do see a colder future ahead. Take a look at what the EURO and GFS are depicting for snow on the latest guidance. By the way, all of the snow occurs on or after January 19th.
The EURO
The GFS
For good measure, the national model blend.
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SMOOTH SAILING THIS WEEKEND...
Getting back to the here and now the system that has passed harmlessly to our SE Thursday, will still have temperature and wind implications Thursday and Friday. After today's balmy readings in the 40s and low 50s, highs Thursday will be back in the mid 30s. From there, they drop to the 27-32 degree range Friday. A few snow flurries or snow showers are also possible Thursday night as a weak short wave and cold air advection attempts to squeeze out what little moisture is available. A couple spots might see a dusting mainly in the NE third. Here's the 24 hour change in temperatures from Wednesday to Thursday afternoon.
A tight pressure gradient will also deliver a stout NW breeze Thursday into much of Friday. That drives wind chills into the 20s Thursday with teens likely Thursday night and much of Friday.
Beyond that, much improved weather arrives Saturday. The day starts cold but sunshine and increasing southerly winds should send highs back into the upper 30s north to low 40s south. Sunday looks even warmer with highs of 45 to 50. However, clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon.
Monday looks to be a damp day as low pressure tracks into eastern Iowa from the southwest. With cold air lacking rain is going to be the dominate precipitation form. Amounts will likely be in the light to moderate category and will be highly dependent on the track of the storm and its dry slot which may catch part of my area.
Colder air arrives on the backside of the system and its depth will determine the ramifications of the next short wave which takes aim on the are Thursday the 19th. Early indications are pointing at snow (or a rain to snow) event. This one needs to be watched for it's potential to bring a snow worth shoveling.
Overall, it appears wave lengths are shortening and a pattern change is evolving that will keep us in an active period much of the next 2 weeks. I'm quite intrigued with the potential on the table. That's all I have for now, roll weather...TS
