HOPING THAT GUT FEELING IS RIGHT...
After some fantastic spring weather Wednesday, Thursday dawned cloudy, windy, and rather chilly. Temperatures around the Midwest Thursday afternoon were 10 to as much as 30 degrees colder. Few of us appreciated that little twist.
Fortunately this was just a short term set-back and Good Friday will bring sunshine and warmer weather that will be with us through the rest of Easter weekend. One positive change that has surfaced over the past 24 hours is much warmer highs for Easter Sunday. Models have all trended slower on a cold front and that supports temperatures in the range of 75 to 80 degrees...perhaps the warmest highs of the year so far!
The GFS depicts this for highs Sunday.
The EURO just a couple degrees cooler.
Just as nice, all models keep the weather dry now through the day on Easter. Starting Sunday night the GFS and EURO start going different directions and a fight begins as to whether or not it rains early next week. Both models shows a frontal passage Sunday night that could generate showers and storms and that looks reasonable. However, the EURO is stronger with a high that sends the front much further south and faster. The GFS with its solution of holding the boundary further north, keeps the central Midwest in a wet pattern with rounds of rain Monday-Wednesday. The EURO is completely dry keeping the wet weather well to the south. Here's a comparison of their respective rainfall forecasts.
As you can clearly see, we have a problem Houston! Those of you who follow this page know that I'm a EURO fan and lean heavily on it in situations like this. I suspect it's on the right track but I'm not fully convinced about it being dry on Monday, especially after the GFS beat the EURO on the snow system in Missouri and Illinois last Sunday. Who knows, maybe the GFS is on a roll. This will be a good test and we'll see where things stand on this battle in coming days.
If nothing else, we are now entering a pattern where temperatures look to be more springlike than they've consistently been the past 3 weeks. The CFSv2 climate model shows this for temperature departures the next 10 days.
The Climate Prediction Center is also on board with the idea of above normal temperatures. Here's what they have for 6-10 day temperatures.
Now the 8-14 day outlook.
This is the CPC outlook for the entire month of May
And this is the May precipitation outlook.
Every year about this time there's a point when it becomes apparent that we've turned a corner and those chilly days in the 40s and 50s are behind us for many months to come. I can't say that with certainty just yet but I'm starting to get that feeling. Here's hoping that "gut sense is right". Roll weather...TS