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In my last post we were kicking around the possibility of an early taste of winter here in the Midwest around October 10-15th. Nothing has diminished my ideas on that today. In fact, if anything my confidence is growing that an early season snow will clip the upper Midwest and bring a stout blast of cold air deep into the center of the nation on its backside. If the air is as cold as advertised, a few flurries could even make it as far south as Iowa and northern Illinois.

The Climate Prediction Center acknowledges the potential in its 6-10 day outlook. Plenty of cold air digging southeast is fueling a storm with above normal precipitation in the heartland.

At the surface this is manifested October 10th by a cold 1039mb high and a developing surface low in Kansas. Snow is already falling from the Rockies into North Dakota and Canada.

As I expected, such a scenario would lead to a track further NW than what the operational GFS was showing yesterday. It's snowfall forecast looked like this.

Today as anticipated, its solution has changed to this. Still some decent early snows but more in line with what climatology would dictate. In other words, it's further north.

The EURO looks more realistic to me with the track and snow band even further NW.

The GEM (Canadian model) is much further SE. It does have a similar look to the GFS and again I have serious doubts about this playing out. One thing I do find interesting is that it shows snow minor snow totals well into the central Midwest and much of my area. What I suspect the model is seeing and this could have merit, is snow showers that develop in the cold unstable air behind the storm. If this thing does what it's showing and is capable of, I could see a few flakes this far south.

The biggest issue for my area though will be the first widespread outbreak of cold air. CPC indicates a moderate risk of much below temperatures in the period October 12th-18th.

Just look at these temperature departures for October 12th. Spots as much as 20 degrees below normal F.

Such a scenario would indicate a high chance of frost and most likely freezing temperatures. In some areas the end of the growing season. The GEFS ensemble shows this for the odds of a 32 degree or colder temperature the morning of October 12th. 40-70% in my area.

By the way, the GEFS has this for odds of snowfall greater than 1"