THE STING OF WINTER...
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TUESDAY'S FEATURE POST:
I took the garbage out Monday night and was reminded of what December is all about. Readings were a good 30-40 degrees colder than the night before. These are the 24 hour temperature changes at 1:00 am.
The stars were shining but I didn't waste anytime looking with wind chills hovering several degrees below zero.
As the cold came in it squeezed out what moisture there was in the form of some brief but intense snow showers. Snow squall warnings were issued in some counties which is the first time I have seen that new form of advisory issued. Most areas had less than 1/2" of snow accumulation. Just enough to track a cat at my house. Much more was measured up north, especially in Minnesota and Wisconsin. These were the totals through 6:00pm
On the topic of snow a couple disturbances will swing through the Midwest over the next 48 hours with the potential to bring some white gold. The first is a very weak clipper that should bring a narrow band of snow from NW to SE through my central counties late Tuesday night very early Wednesday. Moisture is extremely limited and lift is brief and channeled. That will keep accumulations confined to a 30-40 mile wide swath. Snow ratios will be high, at least 15:1 so where it falls it will fluff up to an inch in spots, maybe a few locations pushing two. This is what the hi-res 3k NAM shows for totals.
The 12k NAM is slightly more robust in a few spots.
Here's the latest GFS
The next system is much better supported for late Thursday but again it goes further north with its heavier snows falling over Minnesota and Wisconsin. The rich get richer! The 12k NAM has this for totals up that way Thursday.
By the way, I should mention that the core of this bitter cold air mass lifts out rapidly and after Wednesday temperatures look pretty seasonal, maybe a bit above with highs by Thursday back in the low to mid 30s. The thing I really don't like about the pattern is the lack of moisture. and storminess up through Christmas. The EURO EPS ensemble shows this for 15 day precipitation departures through December 23rd.
That does not help our chances to get a white Christmas. However, on the plus side both the GFS and EURO do show much of what falls coming down as snow. This is what they show for snow from the Saturday disturbance. Please don't take this as a hard and fast forecast. All models have been having tremendous difficulty getting a handle on the pattern and discerning how energy will interact.and track.This is far from certain but at least there is some loose consensus on a threat. As of now the potential exists for a weak to moderate strength system that could lay down a 1-5" snow band in some part of the central Midwest yet to be determined. Hopefully that's better sampled Tuesday or Wednesday. Until then. we watch and wait
Enjoy the crisp day ahead, at least the sun will brighten things up. Roll weather...TS
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