ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW, HERE'S WHAT WE KNOW...

February 11, 2020

This Valentines Day weekend you will "love" the President's Day specials going on at Chestnut Mountain Resort in Galena. There's something for everybody and that includes plenty of snow. There's currently a 42-68" base and with the potential for more natural snow on the way mid-week, there's never been a better time to plan a trip to the Midwest's Premier Year Round Resort.

 

TUESDAY'S FEATURE POST

 

Well, if at first you don't succeed, try try again. That's the theme the next couple days as another storm attempts to bring snow to the Midwest. The last one stayed mainly to the north. This one takes a much further track to the south and this time it's the SE 2/3rds of my area that stands the best chance of getting flaky. Most of the accumulations are likely Wednesday night although snow could kick in as early as mid-afternoon in the south.

 

As many of you know, this winter has been a tough one for models (and forecasters like me who use them)..Phasing has been a real issue and on several occasions models have shown it happening only to back off as the event approached. For that very reason I'm not counting any snowflakes until they're hatched. I'm taking nothing for granted. 

 

Here are what the latest models are showing for raw snowfall accumulations. While the US models have shifted north the latest EURO has trended south (after 2 runs further north). Again less phasing is most likely the culprit. It really lowers confidence and is incredibly frustrating.  Again, this is the data that all forecasters look at to make their forecasts. Just know THIS IS VERY PRELIMINARY and we are far from having precise numbers. If for some reason the track goes further south tomorrow some of the snow goes with it. That could lead to lower amounts, especially in my NW counties.Time will hopefully answer the doubts later tomorrow.

 

The EURO

The GFS...I doubt it.

 The NAM 12k

The NAM 3k 

With this system the potential is there for headlines (at least a winter weather advisory) just based on snow alone. However the elements of wind and cold will eventually become players as the storm evolves and Arctic air surges in. These are the wind gusts indicated on the GFS at 10 meters. Some blowing snow is likely, especially where more than a couple inches falls.

Here are the GFS lows Friday morning.

These are the projected wind chills at their peak intensity Thursday night. 25-35 below is a real possibility.

I guess I'll leave it at this. If we don't get some radical change in track or loss of phasing, this winter storm will have some pop. The most vulnerable part of my area at this moment is the region southeast of a line from Dubuque to Cedar Rapids and back to Ottumwa including all of northern Illinois. We should have a much better handle on trends later Tuesday/Tuesday night. Until then just keep in mind the details are still in the works and nothing is set in stone with regards to potential snowfall. Stay tuned is my advice. Roll weather...TS

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© 2019 Terry Swails