© 2019 Terry Swails

OUR WEEKEND TRANSITIONS FROM WINTER TO SPRING...

February 28, 2020

CHESTNUT MOUNTAINS 60TH ANNIVERSARY BASH JUST ONE DAY AWAY

FIREWORKS OVER THE SNOW COVERED MISSISSIPPI MOUNTAINS...AWESOME!

This Saturday is the 60th Anniversary Celebration at Chestnut Mountain Resort In Galena. This will be a fun-filled family event that I highly suggest putting on your to do list. During the day the Big Nut Open Ski and Snowboard Competition is going on with some of the best talent in the Midwest participating. The fires will be lit and the food and drinks flowing inside the resort. At night live entertainment is planned with Bowman Pickney and Evans providing the music from 8-11pm. Top that off with the Torchlight Parade and Fireworks over the mountain at 10pm. and you've got yourself a top notch winter day. I plan to be a part of it with some live remotes and videos. I hope to see you on the slopes this Saturday at Chestnut Mountain, the Midwest's Premier Year Round Resort!

 

FRIDAY'S FEATURE POST

 

A powerhouse storm in SE Canada has brought a vigorous cyclonic flow to the Midwest late Thursday. Along with colder temperatures a minor disturbance will streak southeast in the flow early Friday. It's what we'll call a hybrid clipper with little surface reflection. Technically it's just a tiny short wave caught up in the cyclonic flow along a stout baroclinic boundary. Blah blah blah...

It will be a fast mover with meager moisture and a short window of forcing. Just strong enough to squeeze out light snow showers. There could be some minor accumulations in banding that yield 1/2" (worst case scenario 1") Those types of accumulations will be the exceptions and most areas are likely to see a dusting or less.

 

Here's what the models are showing for snowfall totals.

 

The EURO

The GFS

 The 3K NAM

The 12K NAM

This little snow making dude arrives very early Friday and in most areas ends from NW to SE during the mid to late morning. By afternoon clouds break and temperatures will warm into the low to mid 30s north to near 40 south.

So after a cold wintry start to the weekend Friday morning, conditions rapidly improve and Saturday and Sunday should be well about normal. Here's the projected weekend highs on the EURO. Sunday looks to be the best with that 60 degree line up around I-80.

 

Saturday

Sunday

Readings will turn cooler for a few days next week as a front passes and we get into a split flow aloft. However the cooling is minimal and it appears readings will stay above seasonal norms.The EURO meteogram has this for highs through next Friday.

The split flow in the pattern also keeps most of the storminess and precipitation to the south. That's been the case recently with precipitation totals that look like this over the past 30 days.

Below you can see southern Iowa has the greatest precipitation anomalies over that period.

Just looking at persistence and the overall pattern aloft, I think the dryness will prevail much of the next 10-14 days. The EURO certainly agrees showing this for total precipitation the next 10 days.

That translates to some significant departures that look like this.

The GFS is not as extreme but does roll the same way as the EURO with its 10 day departures..

Once we get past today the rest of the weekend looks pretty darn tasty. A good way to end February! Roll weather...TS.

 

By the way, we do have a new edition of Weather School called Severe Weather 101 planned for April 4th. We have devoted the entire afternoon to the formation of severe storms with a strong emphasis on tornadoes. We'll do some simulations and take you inside several classic historic tornado outbreaks that have impacted Iowa and Illinois. I think you'll be really pleased with the sessions. We hope you can join us for all things severe weather! For all the details click on the banner below or contact Carolynswettston@yahoo.com

 

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