FRESH THOUGHTS ON SNOW...
Just a quick update on the snowfall potential Thursday night. First and foremost, there is going to be snow...no worries there. The issue is precisely where and how much. For sure the area north of HWY 30 gets a pass. Based on all the data I've looked at today the best chances for 2 or more inches appears to be from I-80 south. (4-7" totals are possible 30 miles either side of HWY 34 in SE Iowa and WC Illinois). Here are the odds of an inch or more from the Weather Prediction Center. I would have them at 95% in southern Iowa but you get the idea.
The models are split into 2 camps. The high resolution CAMS (NAM and 3k NAM) which are further north and the a hodge podge of others including the GFS and EURO that are further south. I'm not sure why the NAM's are so far north but their bias of being too snowy is well known. I am discounting them...as heartbreaking as it is for me to do but reality dictates. Here's what they show. Eye candy!
The 12k NAM
The 3k NAM
Far more believable and what I am basing my expectations on, are the EURO and GFS. Notice the big difference in their solutions. I like the way they handle the dry air in place over my northern counties. That suppresses the heavier snow band to the area near and south of I-80. Amounts are more reasonable too.
The EURO
The GFS
Here are a few more models which are more in the middle of the two camps.
The SREF mean
The Canadian GEM
It is possible the NWS will put out an advisory or winter storm watch for some of my southern counties at some point. I think it is warranted but there's always room for debate. The snow really doesn't get going until late Thursday and Thursday night and where the band set's up there is going to be hazardous travel as the ground has cooled and evaporative cooling will drop surface temperatures below freezing at night. Still time for more data and revisions north or south. In fact, one of the things I'm concerned about is the dry air pushing the snow band even further south...a real possibility. Stay tuned and roll weather...TS
