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A DRY HEAT COMING...

We're gearing up for what looks to be another stretch of "late summer" heat here in the central Midwest. However, I want to stress that while it will be hot for September, it won't be steamy like the last round just over a week ago. The lack of steam is tied to the dew points which are not expected to reach more than the upper 50s to low 60s. The recent heat wave had dew points in the upper 70s to low 80s which is considered oppressive. The NWS indicates that only 42 days have seen dew points of 80 or more since 1948 in Moline.

The NWS also indicates that the 120 heat index values many of us experienced is extremely rare. The odds any year of a 120 HX are less than 1 percent and the most likely time for such an occurrence is late July or early August. Ours came a good 3 weeks beyond that! From here on out, chances of reaching a 100 degree heat index are at 11 percent or less. We've never had a heat index higher than 80 after November 7th.

By the way, here's a list of heat index values locally of 115 or higher August 23rd and 24th of 2023.

Additionally, when the heat broke it was dramatic in its speed. Many places had lows Friday August 25th that were 50 degrees cooler than the highs Thursday the 24th. Both Vinton and Freeport went from 100 to 49 during that period. It's quite rare to see swings that large in summer. Not so much in other times of the year.

In the coming heat burst, the EURO shows 5 days with consecutive days with highs in the 90s in the Quad Cities. That includes a couple of 94's and a 95

However, with the upper air flow at 500mb not in a sufficient position to tap decent moisture until Tuesday, the air mass is projected to be so dry that not a single day has a heat index out of the mid to upper 90s. That is a blessing. As a result, CPC shows only a slight risk of excessive heat September 2nd-6th over northern Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Guidance is in good agreement long term that above normal temperatures continue into next. Below normal precipitation is also expected. That's reflected in the 8-14 outlook issued by CPC.

Rainfall deficits the next 15 days are quite significant around the central U.S. Take a look at the dryness centered on the Midwest between now and September 14th.

At least through Labor day weekend into Tuesday, the EURO indicates no rainfall anywhere in my area.

That implies 6 more days of dry weather which would bring the current streak of consecutive days with no measurable rain to 22 days. Believe it or not, that's not even half way to the record for the Quad Cities. That was set in the fall of 1952 when there were 45 consecutive days with no measurable rain! The streak ended on November 15th.

There are some promising signs that rain chances may be on the uptick later Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Much depends on the timing of forcing and the amount of moisture return but at least the basics are on the table for scattered showers and storms at that time. We'll know more in a couple days.


With that, get set for another spectacular day with sunny skies, comfortable temperatures and meager humidity before the weekend heats up. August goes our like a lamb! Roll weather...TS


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