DRY AIR TO THE RESCUE....
Let me just start this post by congratulating Rebecca Kopelman on her NWA (National Weather Association) seal. Rebecca, known to many of you as RK helps me with the page on the weekends so I can get a breather now and then. Along with the NWA seal, she has a master's degree from Mississippi State and her degree in Meteorology from the University of Florida (A Gator). The young lady is a prodigy and we all benefit from her forecasts and insights on this page. Please join me in giving her a hearty pat on the back for this professional accomplishment. Nice going RK!
That brings me to the weekend and while there are still some chances for rain, trends the last couple of days are for lighter amounts and a more southern emphasis, at least until Sunday night. Overall, the weather looks better.
This development is due to the blocking effects of high pressure over the Great Lakes and the dry air it maintains through Sunday. With the better forcing, moisture, and baroclinic boundary well to the south, any rain that falls in my area is likely to be light. You can see the wall of dry air that must be overcome for precipitation Friday morning by way of water vapor (PWAT'S). They are running 30-40 percent below mid-May standards.
These are the projected water vapor values Friday morning.
That means the first attempt at rain Friday night will likely be in the death throws of the dry air when it arrives. The disturbance starts decent enough out west Friday morning but outruns its forcing and moisture as it fizzles and turns southeast away from the area Saturday morning. That leaves the bulk of the area dry Saturday and Saturday night and probably most of the day Sunday.
This is what the EURO shows for total rainfall Friday night through Saturday night. Most of this occurs Friday night when many of us will be inside and sound asleep. Excellent timing.
Assuming the data remains consistent, dry weather appears to hold through Sunday. However, major model discrepancies arise Sunday night as the EURO forces a warm front northward toward the Iowa border. Warm advection kicks off showers and thunderstorms with some decent amounts indicated through Monday morning. Take a look.
The GFS says no way to that idea holding the dry air in place forcing the rains to fall much further south and largely out of my area.