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It was a beautiful end to the weekend and the nice weather will keep on rolling. However, the nice weather leads to a lack of moisture for precipitation.

To start we have northwesterly flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which tends to be a drier pattern for us:

Moisture levels will be on the low side with comfortable dew points (humidity) and PWATS (precipitable water - moisture available in the atmosphere) on the low side as well:

When looking at the surface (temperature + dew point) you can see the lower dews in green through the start of the week. By the end of the 10 day period the temperatures and humidity do start to increase.

That's when the ridge of high pressure start to build back in and send temperatures up:

That will force the jet stream, the storm track, up to the north, and lead to another stretch of dry weather. A lot of consistency - unfortunately - for a lack of rain during the next 7-10 days.

Here's the European's rainfall through September 6th:

And the GFS:

Being on the edge of the heat over Labor Day weekend *could* lead to thunderstorms, but it'll be dependent on where exactly everything sets up.

Rebecca Kopelman


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