If you've been feeling a bit whiplashed lately it's one of two things, the election or the temperatures! Maybe they're related? Just look at the highs the past 3 weeks in Cedar Rapids. Going from 79 October 11th, to 32 the 26th, and back to 72 November 3rd. Throw in a low of 17 the 2nd, and you can see Cedar Rapids and much of the central Midwest has experienced a range in temperatures of more than 60 degrees.
Of course the really good news is the fact that right here and now we are in one of these up cycles and we have some fine days to offer you right on into the weekend. The EURO keeps the good times rolling through next Tuesday before the chill of November returns.
Since the next few days are mild and dry I'll fast forward to the future and what should be a noticeable change the middle of next week. That's when the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) is forecast to go into phase 1. During November that points to analogs that indicate a colder and stormier pattern.
The storm that ushers in the change in our weather fortunes is shown on the GFS next Tuesday as it enters the Midwest.
It has plenty of moisture and sufficient dynamics to produce a generous rain shield and most models and their ensembles indicate the potential of 1-2" of rain. Some thunderstorms are even possible. The GFS has this for rainfall.
By then we will have gone 17 days with no measurable rain in the majority of my area but the far southeast. That signifies another long stretch of dry weather, something we've seen frequently since mid-summer.
Following the storm we get into an upper air pattern that features an active storm track and access to colder air.
The 500mb jet looks this way the evening of November 12th.
That also brings the threat of snow back into the Midwest in the 8-14 day period. The ensembles of the EURO show this for snowfall over the 15 day period ending November 19th. The is the average of 52 solutions so some are snowier further south.
No matter what happens, we have plenty of time to enjoy what is left of this mild November weather. I suggest you do it as it's likely going to be some time before 70 degree highs return to the area. Roll weather TS.
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