- Jun 2, 2022

WHAT'S NOT TO LIKE...

With an endless supply of chilly, cool, and often damp weather, this has been the spring of discontent. Even the few warm days we've experienced have been tainted by humidity or blustery conditions. That is why I'm pleased to say the rest of the work week will be picture perfect with all the trimmings you could ask for in an early June day.

What I'm describing is this, abundant sunshine, pleasant temperatures, gentle winds, and minimal humidity. What's not to like? Now everyday won't be as perfect as Thursday and Friday, but you can see the trend of comfortable temperatures is projected to last the first two weeks of June with daily highs in the low to mid 70s on the GFS.

Now get this, in the Quad Cities half of June's daily highs (51.8 percent) are between 80 and 99 degrees. If we go 14 days without a high reaching 80, every day the remainder of the month will have to hit at least 80 just to reach the monthly average. That's not likely, especially the way this June is shaping up.

In fact, the next 10 days these are the projected temperature departures. As you can see the cornbelt is at the epicenter of some very comfortable June air masses. Certainly no heat anytime soon.

The Climate Prediction Center has the right idea.

Today's precipitation outlook has trended toward what the GFS indicated 24 hours ago, and that is light amounts with an energy split that keeps a heavier band north and another to the south. The first attempt at meaningful rain comes Saturday night as a warm front makes a weak effort to push into the region. Highs in the far south might get close to 80 but the GFS keeps things more in the mid to upper 70s. The north is closer to 70

On the nose of the warmth, warm air advection develops showers and storms Saturday night. The far north is most susceptible to this potential with both the GFS and EURO showing only a glancing blow near and mainly north of HWY 20 where some substantial amounts are shown. The GFS also paints another heavier band in the far south close to the warm front Saturday afternoon. The EURO does not indicate that potential and I'm hesitant about buying into the solution just yet. At any rate, here's what models show for rainfall late Saturday through daybreak Sunday. Most of the region gets by on light amounts. Still some time to refine the scenario.

The EURO

The GFS

Sunday the front sinks back to the south and positions itself over central Missouri where it holds into the middle of next week. North of it some showers may occasionally graze the south next week with disturbances rippling along the boundary. The best forcing by far remains further south so assuming the front stays put, rainfall next week looks light and confined to the southern third of my area, south of I-80.

That also keeps us in easterly surface winds much of next week supporting highs mainly in the low 70s during the day and low 50s at night. The earliest I see this pattern potentially changing is June 15th. CPC does show readings above normal in the 3-4 week period. Time will tell.