WINNER WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER...
The verdict is in our our late week storm system and the winner is the GFS. Yesterday the EURO and GEM were in the southern camp showing only a glancing blow. The GFS was stronger, further north, and an outlier. My money was on the EURO which has been performing admirably lately. Today, it and the Canadian GEM have trended the way of the GFS (although not as far north) and that means a widespread rain event for my area Thursday night through Saturday morning hat could even end with a bit of snow. Waiter, get that model a chicken dinner!
This northern track of the system significantly changes the forecast Friday and Saturday not only in terms of precipitation, but in the colder temperatures precipitation and cloud cover will bring. More on those details ahead.
A SENSATIONAL WEDNESDAY
Before the storm...Wednesday, (which technically falls under the domain of a winter day), will have the look and feel of spring with the potential for highs to reach 70 degrees in many parts of the region. With ample sunshine and light winds it will be a day to enjoy outside.
Late Wednesday night a cold front sags through the central Midwest and stalls over central Missouri and Illinois in response to a developing low pressure in the Texas Panhandle. In time moisture increases and some showers develop as early as Thursday afternoon. However, these look light and scattered and a more general rain is likely to overspread the area late Thursday night and Friday. Both the GFS and EURO show the rain lingering into early Saturday before departing. You can see the GFS depiction of how the storms surface and precipitation features play out.
Again, the GFS is the furthest north solution bringing the heavier precipitation shield to the NW half of my area although everybody gets a good rain. The GFS indicates this for total liquid content ending Saturday morning.
The EURO is further south on the track and its heavier amounts are found in the south half of my area. This fits the statistical analogs I talked about in my last post and is a real possibility.
The 12k NAM shows this for total precipitation.
The GEM shows this.
Another aspect of this system is snow (or the potential of it). Fortunately temperatures are going to be warm before the event and marginal during it for snow to fall and accumulate much if it did. The GFS and 12K NAM, U.S. based models are showing a narrow but significant band of snow clipping the NW half of my area. The EURO keeps most of it west and the GEM keeps most of it east of the Quad Cities. If indeed the system really ramps up and we can get some significant evaporative cooling, especially at night some snow is possible. However, things will have to come together just right and I'm not at all confident we can get the job done. If it happens it would most likely be in the NW third to one half of my area coming Friday night or very early Saturday on the back half of the storm. I don't look for much if any in my area. Here's the various snow solutions on the table right now. LOW confidence to be sure.
The GFS
The EURO
The NAM 12K
The GEM
As for temperatures, we go from 70 Wednesday to near 50 Thursday and 40 Friday. Saturday, depending on how fast the system moves and some late day breaks for sunshine we may hit low 50s, especially in the west. Otherwise mid to upper 40s look good.
Sunday and much of next week temperatures warm again and spring like highs of 55 to 65 are back with us again. Here's the 5 and 10 day temperature departures on the EURO ending March 26th
Days 0-5
Days 5-10
Lot's going on the next week. March madness continues. Roll weather...TS
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