WINTER REFUSES TO QUIT...
Tuesday I witnessed two tornadoes in NW Iowa with temperatures that were in the mid 70s. Wednesday, snow was falling in those same areas with some of it making it into my western counties. My mom called me from Iowa City to say it was snowing big flakes there late in the day. While snow April 13th is not unheard of, for some in my area it's the 3rd or 4th day this month where snowflakes have been observed. That's pushing the bounds of my patience. Just look at how much colder temperatures were Wednesday compared to Tuesday. We've seen this over and over again.
The front that produced the tornadoes and caused temperatures to plummet, is driving a historic blizzard in North Dakota. Snow is still falling in parts of the state after beginning Sunday night. I-94 was closed from Jamestown to Bismarck. Total amounts were expected to end up like this around central North Dakota. This image was tweeted by the N.D. Highway Patrol of the whiteout conditions Wednesday evening. Things can always be worse...right.
By the way, this is one of the tornadoes I witnessed Tuesday evening near Gilmore City, Iowa. It was one of four to touchdown in that area and was rated by the NWS as a 7 mile long EF2. I was within a few hundred yards of the twister at one point and that was a thrilling experience. Fortunately, no injuries were reported as the storms stayed largely over open fields.
I watched the entire roof sail off this house and disintegrate east of town. It was like Wizard of Oz stuff!
In a general sense the weather is going to calm down for a few days but conditions will be more reminiscent of early-March than mid-April. Temperatures through Easter weekend will remain below normal with the EURO showing departures that are far below the means.
Here's some specific temperature projections off the EURO ensembles through Tuesday of next week. Dang that's downright ugly with lots of 40s after Thursday.
Now, if the EURO is on the right track, we should see an uptick in temperature the following week. I'll show you the comparison as we could all use something positive to hang our hat on. Fingers crossed.
Week 1 departures. (through April 20th)
Week 2 departures (April 21-28th)
It also appears that precipitation will be quite a bit lighter the next week (out through April 20th) than it's been the past month with significant departures...cooler and calmer weather!
With warmer weather week 2, precipitation picks up again, especially in the north.
I think we've established the fact Easter Weekend is going to be cool, the question is will it be dry? Both the EURO and GFS have a very minor disturbance Friday that could touch off a few rain and snow showers around the area, especially the south. It wouldn't be much (if it even happens). The EURO shows this for snow.
The GFS this.
Saturday will most certainly be a dry day with mixed sun and clouds so no issues there. Sunday however is more of a question mark with the GFS bringing clouds and a system capable of producing rain and snow showers, It's far wetter than the EURO showing precipitation totals that look like this Easter.
The EURO however, shows very little in the way of measurable precipitation but still paints a dreary day.
As for snow, the GFS tries to scare up a little in the western half of my area, even showing some minor amounts NW of a line from Washington to Dubuque. I'm seriously questioning that.
The EURO keeps any snow to the west. I currently prefer the drier look of the EURO with lighter precipitation totals and little if any snow. We've got a couple days to pin it all down.
No matter what, Easter will have at least a chance of a few light rain showers (perhaps mixed with a bit of snow northwest). Clouds look to be a player along with unseasonably cool highs in the low to mid 40s. Not a very bright outlook I'm afraid to say. Maybe next year!
Meantime, Thursday will be a bit better. We should see some sun, especially south of HWY 30. It should be enough to get highs back in the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. Even so, it will be a blustery day with wind advisories in effect for gusts greater than 40 mph.
That's the best I can offer for now. April is just a two-faced month. I never liked it much! Have a solid day and roll weather...TS