Two weeks ago we discussed late November potential given the signals that, at the time, were just starting to pop in the teleconnections. The North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation and the MJO were all starting to to shift to a colder signal come late November into December. That signal is now starting to enter the range of the longer-range model guidance, and the cold signal is starting to show up in the extended range. The upper air pattern above on Black Friday on

The signals are all pointing to a fairly active stretch of weather through the week, especially late week, as a rather strong autumn storm takes aim on the central US. The details on location, timing and exact impacts remain to be seen, but locally we will need to be on the lookout for some potentially heavy rain, relative to the time of year. Seven-day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center shows a rather active pattern across the central United States. Lo

When you add it all up, Friday was a perfect 10. The ingredients of sunshine, dry air, a slight breeze, and highs of seventy are exceptionally hard to bundle in mid-November. My guess is that the odds of that combination are at best 1 percent. The hardest element to achieve is the light winds. Typically, 70 degree days in November come with gusty south winds up to 30 mph, which tempers some of the warmth. Some say there is no such thing as perfection, I say Friday was as clos

FOOD FOR THOUGHT Let's begin today's blog with some food for thought. My climate guy, Steve Gottschalk was poking around yesterday and came up with something I deemed interesting. He decided to look at his 10 coldest Decembers to see what the previous month's temperatures were like in the hopes of coming up with some analogs that might give us a clue as to what to expect this December. His initial conclusions indicated that in the 10 coldest winters: 60% of the time July was

Temperatures will rise, and the skies will continue to shine as we remain on track for near record temperatures Friday and Saturday. The only knock will be the winds, right on through the weekend they will remain brisk, the price you pay for highs of 65 to 70. Before we get too deep into the weather, we were fortunate to have clear skies to witness one of the best displays of the northern lights I can remember, and I'm getting long in the tooth. Many of you must have agreed,